Compendium › Surge › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+1.98%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,724.08
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$9,535.66
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:22

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 6.9/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,776
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,535.66
Current Value
$9,724.08
Period P&L
$188.42
Max Drawdown
-17.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+1.25%
Worst Trade
-1.02%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$57,592.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$188.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$188.42
Gross Return
+1.98%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,535.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $356.46 27 $9,624.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $360.91 27 $9,744.64 $9,790.73 +$120.22
(+1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $360.91 27 $9,744.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET $357.23 27 $9,645.08 $9,691.32 $-99.41
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:30pm ET $361.56 26 $9,400.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:00pm ET $362.82 26 $9,433.32 $9,724.08 +$32.76
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,724.08
Net Profit/Loss: $-275.92
Total Return: -2.76%
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