Compendium › Surge › COST
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
COST
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+3.76%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,714.96
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$12,253.66
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:43

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
68.2 neutral
20d Trend
+5.1%
5d Trend
+5.5%
EMA20 Dist
+3.1%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
93%
Bounce Ratio
2.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.3/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
4.4/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 38.5/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 28.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,805
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,253.66
Current Value
$12,714.96
Period P&L
$461.30
Max Drawdown
-7.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.91

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+2.07%
Worst Trade
-0.22%
Avg Trade Return
+0.97%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$96,353.92
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$461.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$461.30
Gross Return
+3.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 COST Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,253.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:55pm ET $997.59 12 $11,971.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:25pm ET $997.84 12 $11,974.14 $12,256.72 +$3.06
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 11:05am ET $979.96 12 $11,759.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:35am ET $1,000.24 12 $12,002.91 $12,500.16 +$243.44
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:45am ET $997.98 12 $11,975.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 12:15pm ET $1,018.10 12 $12,217.20 $12,741.60 +$241.44
(+2.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:20pm ET $1,020.00 12 $12,240.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,017.78 12 $12,213.36 $12,714.96 $-26.64
(-0.2%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,714.96
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,714.96
Total Return: +27.15%
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