Compendium › Surge › DOTUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOTUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-5.15%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,759.20
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$11,284.87
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:59:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.6 oversold
20d Trend
-46.1%
5d Trend
-40.6%
EMA20 Dist
-40.2%
ATR%
14.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.0/35
Total Return
7.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 13.7/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 11.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,800
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,284.87
Current Value
$10,759.20
Period P&L
$-580.94
Max Drawdown
-27.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.47

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+2.65%
Worst Trade
-5.18%
Avg Trade Return
-1.53%
Avg Hold Time
10.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$67,902.31
Estimated Fees
$169.76
Gross P&L
$-580.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$-750.70
Gross Return
-5.15%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.65%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,284.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:10am ET $1.36 8,297 $11,283.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $1.40 8,297 $11,582.61 $11,583.56 +$298.69
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $1.33 8,730 $11,582.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:20am ET $1.30 8,730 $11,346.51 $11,347.54 $-236.02
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET $1.45 7,824 $11,347.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $1.38 7,824 $10,759.20 $10,759.20 $-643.61
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,759.20
Net Profit/Loss: +$759.20
Total Return: +7.59%
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