Compendium › Surge › GLD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
GLD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-2.10%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,393.36
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$10,616.15
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:49:45

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
48.3 neutral
20d Trend
+3.5%
5d Trend
-2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.0%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
51%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
5.8/25
Win Rate
5.2/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 16.4/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 12.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,616.15
Current Value
$10,393.36
Period P&L
$-222.79
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.32

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+1.84%
Worst Trade
-2.87%
Avg Trade Return
-0.54%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$83,116.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-222.79
Net P&L (after fees)
$-222.79
Gross Return
-2.10%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.10%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GLD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,616.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:10pm ET $456.35 23 $10,496.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 1:40pm ET $464.75 23 $10,689.25 $10,809.35 +$193.20
(+1.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:55pm ET $465.31 23 $10,702.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:35am ET $460.28 23 $10,586.44 $10,693.66 $-115.69
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 12:40pm ET $468.38 22 $10,304.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:10am ET $454.95 22 $10,008.90 $10,398.20 $-295.46
(-2.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:25am ET $462.13 22 $10,166.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $461.91 22 $10,162.02 $10,393.36 $-4.84
(-0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,393.36
Net Profit/Loss: +$393.36
Total Return: +3.93%
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