Compendium › Surge › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 8 trades in period

-6.98%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,126.96
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$8,736.54
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:54

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality 3.6/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 3.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,736.54
Current Value
$8,126.96
Period P&L
$-609.58
Max Drawdown
-25.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
2 / 6
Best Trade
+15.16%
Worst Trade
-6.90%
Avg Trade Return
-0.68%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$135,594.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-609.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$-609.58
Gross Return
-6.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,736.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET $7.61 1,148 $8,730.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET $7.84 1,148 $9,006.06 $9,012.06 +$275.52
(+3.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $8.30 1,086 $9,008.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:25am ET $8.19 1,086 $8,888.91 $8,892.60 $-119.46
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 11:10am ET $8.14 1,093 $8,891.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:40am ET $8.02 1,093 $8,771.32 $8,772.37 $-120.23
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $7.86 1,116 $8,766.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET $7.71 1,116 $8,605.92 $8,612.11 $-160.26
(-1.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.28 928 $8,611.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $8.64 928 $8,017.92 $8,018.19 $-593.92
(-6.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $8.57 935 $8,017.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $8.00 935 $7,480.00 $7,480.57 $-537.62
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $9.40 795 $7,473.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET $10.82 795 $8,605.87 $8,613.45 +$1,132.88
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET $11.85 726 $8,603.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET $11.18 726 $8,116.61 $8,126.96 $-486.49
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,126.96
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,873.04
Total Return: -18.73%
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