Compendium › Surge › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-1.46%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,256.62
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$8,378.68
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:33

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 7.0/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 5.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,798
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,378.68
Current Value
$8,256.62
Period P&L
$-122.06
Max Drawdown
-38.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+2.63%
Worst Trade
-2.91%
Avg Trade Return
-0.46%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$49,050.78
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-122.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$-122.06
Gross Return
-1.46%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,378.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $122.38 68 $8,321.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $118.82 68 $8,079.76 $8,136.94 $-241.74
(-2.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $118.08 68 $8,029.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET $121.19 68 $8,240.92 $8,348.42 +$211.48
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $121.11 68 $8,235.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 3:45pm ET $119.76 68 $8,143.68 $8,256.62 $-91.80
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,256.62
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,743.38
Total Return: -17.43%
Back to Surge