Compendium › Surge › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-20 to present • 4 trades in period

-19.79%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,243.03
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$12,769.94
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:23:44

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
4.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 9.6/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 9.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,769.94
Current Value
$10,243.03
Period P&L
$-2,526.91
Max Drawdown
-31.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-27.06

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
0 / 4
Best Trade
-5.03%
Worst Trade
-5.53%
Avg Trade Return
-5.36%
Avg Hold Time
8.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$91,875.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,526.91
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,526.91
Gross Return
-19.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-19.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,769.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $5.63 2,270 $12,768.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET $5.34 2,270 $12,126.57 $12,127.76 $-642.18
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $6.29 1,928 $12,123.84 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $5.95 1,928 $11,468.52 $11,472.43 $-655.33
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30d held
3 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $5.88 1,951 $11,471.88 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:40am ET $5.55 1,951 $10,837.80 $10,838.35 $-634.08
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $6.18 1,753 $10,836.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $5.84 1,753 $10,241.20 $10,243.03 $-595.32
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,243.03
Net Profit/Loss: +$243.03
Total Return: +2.43%
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