Compendium › Surge › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+10.89%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,838.97
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$9,774.67
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:05:27

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 14.3/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 13.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,880
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,774.67
Current Value
$10,838.97
Period P&L
$1,064.30
Max Drawdown
-52.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.38

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+15.13%
Worst Trade
-5.00%
Avg Trade Return
+2.89%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$79,141.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,064.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,064.30
Gross Return
+10.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.89%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,774.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET $33.54 291 $9,760.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET $34.38 291 $10,004.61 $10,019.14 +$244.47
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $33.76 296 $9,991.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $33.40 296 $9,884.92 $9,912.58 $-106.56
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $31.50 314 $9,891.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 11:45am ET $29.92 314 $9,396.10 $9,417.68 $-494.90
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $24.03 391 $9,395.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 10:20am ET $27.67 391 $10,817.02 $10,838.97 +$1,421.29
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,838.97
Net Profit/Loss: +$838.97
Total Return: +8.39%
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