Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:26:26

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score PRO Scored Jun 20, 2026

76
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
24.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
12.0/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 77.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 76.4

30-Day Momentum

51
+28.9%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.2 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$31,590.32
Current Value
$100,621.84
Period P&L
$69,031.52
Max Drawdown
-33.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.79

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
10 / 5
Best Trade
+22.00%
Worst Trade
-8.94%
Avg Trade Return
+8.61%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,110,539.48
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$69,031.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$69,031.52
Gross Return
+218.52%
Net Return (after fees)
+218.52%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $31,590.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $54.38 580 $31,540.40
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET $51.07 580 $29,621.76 $29,671.68 $-1,918.64
(-6.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $42.83 692 $29,634.90
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $49.97 692 $34,582.70 $34,619.48 +$4,947.80
(+16.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $54.63 633 $34,580.79
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $66.65 633 $42,188.56 $42,227.25 +$7,607.77
(+22.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET $74.81 564 $42,192.84
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET $86.11 564 $48,565.59 $48,600.00 +$6,372.75
(+15.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $98.35 494 $48,582.43
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 10:30am ET $113.27 494 $55,955.38 $55,972.95 +$7,372.95
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $114.74 487 $55,878.38
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $132.79 487 $64,668.73 $64,763.30 +$8,790.35
(+15.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
7 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $135.62 477 $64,689.69
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $156.00 477 $74,412.00 $74,485.61 +$9,722.31
(+15.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
8 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $162.00 459 $74,358.00
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:35am ET $186.55 459 $85,626.45 $85,754.06 +$11,268.45
(+15.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $182.05 471 $85,745.55
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $165.77 471 $78,077.67 $78,086.18 $-7,667.88
(-8.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
10 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $162.08 481 $77,960.48
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:35am ET $187.53 481 $90,201.93 $90,327.63 +$12,241.45
(+15.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
11 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $235.90 382 $90,113.80
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:40am ET $223.66 382 $85,438.08 $85,651.91 $-4,675.72
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $240.40 356 $85,582.40
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $277.78 356 $98,889.68 $98,959.19 +$13,307.28
(+15.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $209.74 471 $98,787.54
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $197.83 471 $93,177.93 $93,349.58 $-5,609.61
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $194.54 479 $93,184.66
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET $225.08 479 $107,811.11 $107,976.04 +$14,626.46
(+15.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.1h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $264.52 408 $107,922.13
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 11:25am ET $246.49 408 $100,567.92 $100,621.84 $-7,354.20
(-6.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $100,621.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$90,621.84
Total Return: +906.22%
Back to Surge