Compendium › Surge › SPXU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPXU
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-9.08%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,654.80
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$11,718.63
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:51:00

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
7.3/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 12.9/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 11.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,861
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,718.63
Current Value
$10,654.80
Period P&L
$-1,063.83
Max Drawdown
-31.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.49

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+2.63%
Worst Trade
-11.20%
Avg Trade Return
-2.94%
Avg Hold Time
7.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$69,709.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,063.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,063.83
Gross Return
-9.08%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,718.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $47.82 245 $11,715.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:20am ET $47.70 245 $11,686.50 $11,689.23 $-29.40
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $48.10 243 $11,688.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:20am ET $49.37 243 $11,995.70 $11,996.55 +$307.32
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $56.52 212 $11,982.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 212 $10,640.49 $10,654.80 $-1,341.75
(-11.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,654.80
Net Profit/Loss: +$654.80
Total Return: +6.55%
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