Compendium › Surge › TLT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TLT
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+1.50%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,385.07
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$10,231.90
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:59:44

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.3/35
Total Return
5.7/25
Win Rate
4.3/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 18.5/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 13.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,881
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,231.90
Current Value
$10,385.07
Period P&L
$153.17
Max Drawdown
-5.8%
Sharpe Ratio
1.45

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
4 / 0
Best Trade
+0.99%
Worst Trade
+0.11%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$81,733.81
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$153.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$153.17
Gross Return
+1.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,231.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET $87.25 116 $10,120.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET $87.34 116 $10,131.44 $10,179.70 +$11.02
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $87.50 116 $10,150.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 2:45pm ET $88.38 116 $10,251.50 $10,280.62 +$100.92
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 12:15pm ET $88.43 116 $10,258.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 12:45pm ET $88.65 116 $10,283.56 $10,305.72 +$25.10
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 1:00pm ET $88.95 115 $10,229.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 1:30pm ET $89.64 115 $10,308.60 $10,385.07 +$79.35
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,385.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$385.07
Total Return: +3.85%
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