Compendium › Surge › UVXY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
UVXY
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-20 to present • 4 trades in period

-19.88%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,017.06
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$14,999.23
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:31:32

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
61.7 neutral
20d Trend
+17.9%
5d Trend
+12.1%
EMA20 Dist
+11.8%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
24%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 19.8/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 17.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,999.23
Current Value
$12,017.06
Period P&L
$-2,982.17
Max Drawdown
-20.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-20.45

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
0 / 4
Best Trade
-5.02%
Worst Trade
-5.70%
Avg Trade Return
-5.39%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$107,615.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,982.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,982.17
Gross Return
-19.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-19.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 UVXY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $14,999.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $52.24 287 $14,992.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET $49.49 287 $14,202.20 $14,208.54 $-790.69
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $56.76 250 $14,190.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $53.53 250 $13,381.25 $13,399.79 $-808.75
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $55.10 243 $13,388.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET $52.33 243 $12,716.19 $12,727.07 $-672.72
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $37.10 343 $12,727.01 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $35.03 343 $12,017.00 $12,017.06 $-710.01
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,017.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,017.06
Total Return: +20.17%
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