Compendium › Surge › VRTX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VRTX
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-6.87%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,726.03
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$10,443.01
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:24:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.5 neutral
20d Trend
-1.8%
5d Trend
-1.9%
EMA20 Dist
-0.6%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 85%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 8.7/100
× Confidence 0.85 = 7.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (85%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,800
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,443.01
Current Value
$9,726.03
Period P&L
$-716.98
Max Drawdown
-16.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.85

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+0.57%
Worst Trade
-5.15%
Avg Trade Return
-1.77%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$80,743.53
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-716.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-716.98
Gross Return
-6.87%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.87%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VRTX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,443.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:35am ET $469.11 22 $10,320.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET $471.80 22 $10,379.71 $10,502.30 +$59.29
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $467.66 22 $10,288.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:30am ET $462.88 22 $10,183.36 $10,397.14 $-105.16
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 1:20pm ET $500.37 20 $10,007.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 2:55pm ET $492.85 20 $9,857.00 $10,246.74 $-150.40
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $481.61 21 $10,113.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET $456.82 21 $9,593.20 $9,726.03 $-520.71
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,726.03
Net Profit/Loss: $-273.97
Total Return: -2.74%
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