Compendium › Surge › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+16.10%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,100.14
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$12,144.67
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:18:19

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 31.6/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 23.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,848
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,144.67
Current Value
$14,100.14
Period P&L
$1,955.47
Max Drawdown
-14.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.62

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+15.08%
Worst Trade
-1.10%
Avg Trade Return
+4.03%
Avg Hold Time
7.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$99,933.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,955.47
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,955.47
Gross Return
+16.10%
Net Return (after fees)
+16.10%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,144.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:30am ET $140.49 86 $12,082.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $143.60 86 $12,349.60 $12,411.70 +$267.03
(+2.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $143.68 86 $12,356.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $143.57 86 $12,346.59 $12,401.81 $-9.89
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:20pm ET $140.69 88 $12,380.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $139.14 88 $12,244.32 $12,265.41 $-136.40
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 85 $12,169.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:10am ET $164.75 85 $14,003.75 $14,100.14 +$1,834.73
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
27d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,100.14
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,100.14
Total Return: +41.00%
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