Compendium › Surge › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 24 trades in period

-0.92%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,912.36
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$12,023.32
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:18:48

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.1/35
Total Return
10.8/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 22.0/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 20.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,191
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,023.32
Current Value
$11,912.36
Period P&L
$-110.96
Max Drawdown
-16.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
10 / 14
Best Trade
+4.48%
Worst Trade
-5.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.00%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$590,494.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-110.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$-110.96
Gross Return
-0.92%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.92%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,023.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 12:15pm ET $84.67 141 $11,937.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET $82.73 141 $11,664.23 $11,711.00 $-273.54
(-2.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 2:20pm ET $79.65 147 $11,708.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET $83.22 147 $12,233.34 $12,235.79 +$524.79
(+4.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET $77.29 158 $12,211.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET $76.39 158 $12,069.62 $12,093.59 $-142.20
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 12:50pm ET $75.66 159 $12,029.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 10:45am ET $74.65 159 $11,869.35 $11,933.00 $-160.59
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET $73.53 162 $11,911.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET $75.51 162 $12,232.62 $12,253.76 +$320.76
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:45am ET $75.74 161 $12,194.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 11:15am ET $76.04 161 $12,242.44 $12,302.06 +$48.30
(+0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 12:00pm ET $76.44 160 $12,230.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET $78.07 160 $12,491.20 $12,562.86 +$260.80
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 2:25pm ET $78.68 159 $12,510.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 10:20am ET $77.62 159 $12,341.58 $12,394.32 $-168.54
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:05am ET $79.38 156 $12,383.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 11:15am ET $78.53 156 $12,249.90 $12,260.94 $-133.38
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 11:00am ET $79.98 153 $12,236.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 11:15am ET $82.04 153 $12,551.36 $12,576.12 +$315.18
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 11:20am ET $82.15 153 $12,568.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 11:50am ET $82.10 153 $12,561.30 $12,568.47 $-7.65
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 10:15am ET $82.16 152 $12,488.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 10:45am ET $82.26 152 $12,503.52 $12,583.67 +$15.20
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET $83.12 151 $12,551.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET $81.50 151 $12,306.50 $12,339.05 $-244.62
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 11:20am ET $80.29 153 $12,284.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 11:50am ET $82.13 153 $12,565.89 $12,619.96 +$280.91
(+2.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 2:00pm ET $81.31 155 $12,603.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 2:30pm ET $81.60 155 $12,648.00 $12,664.91 +$44.95
(+0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 2:50pm ET $83.46 151 $12,601.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET $82.53 151 $12,462.03 $12,525.23 $-139.68
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $80.36 155 $12,455.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET $79.42 155 $12,310.10 $12,379.53 $-145.70
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET $80.22 154 $12,353.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $79.35 154 $12,219.13 $12,244.78 $-134.75
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET $81.83 149 $12,192.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:10am ET $81.70 149 $12,173.30 $12,225.41 $-19.37
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $75.19 162 $12,181.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET $74.24 162 $12,026.88 $12,070.70 $-154.71
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $69.26 174 $12,051.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $71.12 174 $12,374.88 $12,394.34 +$323.64
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET $71.36 173 $12,345.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $73.26 173 $12,673.98 $12,723.04 +$328.70
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $71.00 179 $12,708.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 10:45am ET $70.11 179 $12,549.69 $12,564.45 $-158.59
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 172 $12,542.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $69.13 172 $11,890.36 $11,912.36 $-652.09
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,912.36
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,912.36
Total Return: +19.12%
Back to Surge