Compendium › Surge › ARM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARM
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 21 trades in period

-9.22%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,676.13
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$9,557.79
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:49:31

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,241
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,557.79
Current Value
$8,676.13
Period P&L
$-881.66
Max Drawdown
-34.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
6 / 15
Best Trade
+15.17%
Worst Trade
-9.25%
Avg Trade Return
-0.17%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$355,001.72
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-881.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-881.66
Gross Return
-9.22%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,557.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 1:25pm ET $160.85 57 $9,168.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:25am ET $157.58 57 $8,982.06 $9,066.45 $-186.39
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:45am ET $141.86 63 $8,936.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 1:05pm ET $140.33 63 $8,840.79 $8,970.38 $-96.07
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 2:25pm ET $133.16 67 $8,921.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 3:25pm ET $131.75 67 $8,827.25 $8,875.91 $-94.47
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 12:15pm ET $135.63 65 $8,815.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET $127.40 65 $8,281.00 $8,341.28 $-534.63
(-6.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 10:50am ET $134.80 61 $8,222.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 2:15pm ET $135.94 61 $8,292.34 $8,410.82 +$69.54
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:45am ET $138.87 60 $8,332.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 11:20am ET $136.64 60 $8,198.40 $8,277.02 $-133.80
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 1:30pm ET $138.17 59 $8,152.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 2:00pm ET $140.44 59 $8,285.67 $8,410.66 +$133.64
(+1.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 2:45pm ET $141.34 59 $8,339.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 3:15pm ET $142.05 59 $8,380.95 $8,452.55 +$41.89
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 11:10am ET $141.03 59 $8,320.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 11:40am ET $140.78 59 $8,306.02 $8,437.80 $-14.75
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET $109.54 77 $8,434.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 12:45pm ET $108.20 77 $8,331.40 $8,334.77 $-103.03
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:10am ET $116.95 71 $8,303.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:45am ET $115.54 71 $8,202.99 $8,234.30 $-100.47
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET $116.81 70 $8,176.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 1:05pm ET $115.62 70 $8,093.40 $8,151.00 $-83.30
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 2:50pm ET $107.21 76 $8,148.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:45pm ET $105.76 76 $8,038.14 $8,040.80 $-110.20
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET $109.60 73 $8,000.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:40am ET $108.36 73 $7,909.92 $7,949.92 $-90.88
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET $120.21 66 $7,934.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $123.28 66 $8,136.48 $8,152.21 +$202.29
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $126.11 64 $8,071.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $124.83 64 $7,989.44 $8,070.61 $-81.60
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $120.00 67 $8,039.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 10:30am ET $138.20 67 $9,259.40 $9,290.34 +$1,219.73
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $148.35 62 $9,198.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET $140.24 62 $8,694.88 $8,787.21 $-503.13
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $155.98 56 $8,734.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $147.27 56 $8,247.29 $8,299.62 $-487.59
(-5.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $152.16 54 $8,216.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 3:55pm ET $175.10 54 $9,455.40 $9,538.38 +$1,238.76
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.3d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $221.94 42 $9,321.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $201.41 42 $8,459.30 $8,676.13 $-862.25
(-9.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,676.13
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,323.87
Total Return: -13.24%
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