Compendium › Surge › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 27 trades in period

+3.53%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,724.08
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$9,392.65
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:59

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 6.9/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,757
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,392.65
Current Value
$9,724.08
Period P&L
$331.43
Max Drawdown
-17.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
13 / 14
Best Trade
+2.69%
Worst Trade
-1.85%
Avg Trade Return
+0.19%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$516,300.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$331.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$331.43
Gross Return
+3.53%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,392.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 11:35am ET $362.14 25 $9,053.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 12:05pm ET $364.79 25 $9,119.75 $9,347.15 +$66.38
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 2:35pm ET $367.78 25 $9,194.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:10am ET $363.90 25 $9,097.50 $9,250.15 $-97.00
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 10:45am ET $370.31 24 $8,887.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 11:15am ET $375.69 24 $9,016.56 $9,379.27 +$129.12
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 12:45pm ET $340.51 27 $9,193.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 1:15pm ET $343.58 27 $9,276.53 $9,462.08 +$82.81
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 1:35pm ET $344.41 27 $9,298.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET $340.68 27 $9,198.36 $9,361.51 $-100.57
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:20am ET $350.34 26 $9,108.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 11:50am ET $354.90 26 $9,227.40 $9,480.07 +$118.56
(+1.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 12:50pm ET $355.16 26 $9,234.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 1:20pm ET $361.71 26 $9,404.46 $9,650.25 +$170.18
(+1.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 1:25pm ET $361.63 26 $9,402.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 1:55pm ET $365.61 26 $9,505.86 $9,753.86 +$103.61
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 11:00am ET $367.00 26 $9,542.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 10:20am ET $363.05 26 $9,439.30 $9,651.16 $-102.70
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 3:15pm ET $363.61 26 $9,453.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 3:45pm ET $368.53 26 $9,581.78 $9,779.08 +$127.92
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 3:50pm ET $368.50 26 $9,581.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 10:20am ET $373.51 26 $9,711.13 $9,909.21 +$130.13
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 11:05am ET $366.69 27 $9,900.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 2:10pm ET $362.97 27 $9,800.19 $9,808.77 $-100.44
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 10:15am ET $370.68 26 $9,637.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:10am ET $380.67 26 $9,897.37 $10,068.46 +$259.69
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 3:15pm ET $385.53 26 $10,023.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 11:05am ET $381.52 26 $9,919.52 $9,964.20 $-104.26
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 11:15am ET $381.58 26 $9,921.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 11:45am ET $381.11 26 $9,908.86 $9,951.98 $-12.22
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 1:05pm ET $383.16 25 $9,578.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET $382.20 25 $9,555.00 $9,928.11 $-23.87
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $371.55 26 $9,660.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $381.22 26 $9,911.76 $10,179.57 +$251.46
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:05am ET $381.50 26 $9,918.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET $377.99 26 $9,827.74 $10,088.44 $-91.13
(-0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:45am ET $382.81 26 $9,953.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $378.39 26 $9,838.14 $9,973.52 $-114.92
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:40am ET $380.78 26 $9,900.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:10am ET $379.58 26 $9,869.08 $9,942.32 $-31.20
(-0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:05am ET $364.85 27 $9,850.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $358.11 27 $9,668.97 $9,760.47 $-181.85
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET $358.78 27 $9,687.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:50am ET $366.34 27 $9,891.18 $9,964.59 +$204.12
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $369.28 26 $9,601.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $362.44 26 $9,423.44 $9,786.75 $-177.84
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $354.64 27 $9,575.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $350.33 27 $9,458.91 $9,670.51 $-116.24
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $356.46 27 $9,624.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $360.91 27 $9,744.64 $9,790.73 +$120.22
(+1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $360.91 27 $9,744.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET $357.23 27 $9,645.08 $9,691.32 $-99.41
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:30pm ET $361.56 26 $9,400.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:00pm ET $362.82 26 $9,433.32 $9,724.08 +$32.76
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,724.08
Net Profit/Loss: $-275.92
Total Return: -2.76%
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