Compendium › Surge › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 25 trades in period

-2.02%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,377.13
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$8,550.23
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:14

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 5.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 5.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,378
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
135 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,550.23
Current Value
$8,377.13
Period P&L
$-173.10
Max Drawdown
-24.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
9 / 16
Best Trade
+2.97%
Worst Trade
-5.06%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$429,935.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-173.10
Net P&L (after fees)
$-173.10
Gross Return
-2.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 135 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,550.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 1:05pm ET $374.79 22 $8,245.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 10:00am ET $370.90 22 $8,159.80 $8,464.65 $-85.58
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 10:20am ET $340.69 24 $8,176.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 10:50am ET $340.23 24 $8,165.40 $8,453.49 $-11.16
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET $343.85 24 $8,252.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 3:35pm ET $352.58 24 $8,461.98 $8,663.07 +$209.58
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 11:55am ET $356.14 24 $8,547.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 12:25pm ET $356.42 24 $8,553.96 $8,669.67 +$6.60
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 10:50am ET $360.22 24 $8,645.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET $353.94 24 $8,494.48 $8,518.87 $-150.80
(-1.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 10:35am ET $353.88 24 $8,493.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET $349.28 24 $8,382.72 $8,408.47 $-110.40
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:55pm ET $350.34 24 $8,408.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:35am ET $359.95 24 $8,638.80 $8,639.11 +$230.64
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 12:20pm ET $362.51 23 $8,337.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 1:35pm ET $358.82 23 $8,252.75 $8,554.20 $-84.91
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 11:40am ET $357.22 23 $8,216.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 12:10pm ET $356.68 23 $8,203.64 $8,541.78 $-12.42
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 12:20pm ET $347.60 24 $8,342.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 3:45pm ET $349.77 24 $8,394.36 $8,593.74 +$51.96
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET $345.55 24 $8,293.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 11:20am ET $344.67 24 $8,272.08 $8,572.74 $-21.00
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET $343.74 24 $8,249.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $353.96 24 $8,495.04 $8,818.02 +$245.28
(+3.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:05am ET $354.79 24 $8,514.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:15am ET $364.62 24 $8,750.88 $9,053.94 +$235.92
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET $367.32 24 $8,815.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $375.68 24 $9,016.32 $9,254.58 +$200.64
(+2.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 1:30pm ET $377.67 24 $9,064.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 2:00pm ET $375.90 24 $9,021.60 $9,212.10 $-42.48
(-0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:20am ET $382.17 24 $9,171.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $375.90 24 $9,021.60 $9,061.74 $-150.36
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:25am ET $378.74 23 $8,710.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:55am ET $384.51 23 $8,843.73 $9,194.56 +$132.82
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $374.32 24 $8,983.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $378.10 24 $9,074.40 $9,285.28 +$90.72
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET $389.27 23 $8,953.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:50am ET $385.03 23 $8,855.69 $9,187.76 $-97.52
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:30am ET $389.64 23 $8,961.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 1:05pm ET $385.02 23 $8,855.46 $9,081.61 $-106.15
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET $386.13 23 $8,880.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $381.06 23 $8,764.38 $8,965.00 $-116.61
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 11:25am ET $389.37 23 $8,955.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:25am ET $385.44 23 $8,865.12 $8,874.61 $-90.39
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 11:55am ET $390.07 22 $8,581.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 12:25pm ET $390.00 22 $8,580.00 $8,873.07 $-1.54
(-0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:30am ET $393.24 22 $8,651.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $390.48 22 $8,590.56 $8,812.24 $-60.83
(-0.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $330.82 26 $8,601.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $314.08 26 $8,166.21 $8,377.13 $-435.11
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
42.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,377.13
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,622.87
Total Return: -16.23%
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