HOOD Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 30 trades in period
-14.21%
Last 6 Months Return
$16,906.56
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$19,706.23
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
13.3 oversold
20d Trend
-41.6%
5d Trend
-28.6%
EMA20 Dist
-26.6%
ATR%
7.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.9/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality
31.1/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 29.9
30-Day Momentum
11
+3.9%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.3
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-19 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,080
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$19,706.23
Current Value
$16,906.56
Period P&L
$-2,799.67
Max Drawdown
-27.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
9 /
21
Best Trade
+15.27%
Worst Trade
-5.91%
Avg Trade Return
-0.44%
Avg Hold Time
21.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,148,364.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,799.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,799.67
Gross Return
-14.21%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.21%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HOOD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $19,706.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 12:55pm ET | $126.44 | 155 | $19,597.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 2:40pm ET | $129.62 | 155 | $20,091.80 | $20,200.60 |
+$494.37 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:30am ET | $122.73 | 164 | $20,127.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $125.82 | 164 | $20,635.14 | $20,708.02 |
+$507.42 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $118.69 | 174 | $20,652.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:45am ET | $116.30 | 174 | $20,236.20 | $20,292.16 |
$-415.86 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:35am ET | $111.84 | 181 | $20,242.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 2:05pm ET | $114.69 | 181 | $20,758.98 | $20,809.01 |
+$516.85 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:50am ET | $113.62 | 183 | $20,792.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:25pm ET | $116.49 | 183 | $21,317.67 | $21,334.22 |
+$525.21 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:40pm ET | $126.73 | 168 | $21,290.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET | $123.23 | 168 | $20,702.64 | $20,746.22 |
$-588.00 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $128.47 | 161 | $20,683.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:25am ET | $126.60 | 161 | $20,383.32 | $20,445.87 |
$-300.35 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $130.64 | 156 | $20,379.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:10am ET | $129.29 | 156 | $20,169.55 | $20,236.35 |
$-209.52 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 11:45am ET | $136.61 | 148 | $20,217.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 2:20pm ET | $135.00 | 148 | $19,980.00 | $19,998.60 |
$-237.75 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:25am ET | $137.82 | 145 | $19,983.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 3:30pm ET | $136.25 | 145 | $19,756.25 | $19,770.95 |
$-227.65 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 10:05am ET | $136.24 | 145 | $19,754.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 10:40am ET | $134.85 | 145 | $19,553.25 | $19,570.12 |
$-200.83 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $123.94 | 157 | $19,458.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $122.42 | 157 | $19,219.16 | $19,330.49 |
$-239.63 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:10am ET | $121.90 | 158 | $19,260.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 11:40am ET | $122.12 | 158 | $19,294.17 | $19,364.46 |
+$33.97 (+0.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:30pm ET | $120.53 | 160 | $19,284.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $118.60 | 160 | $18,976.00 | $19,055.66 |
$-308.80 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:20pm ET | $115.86 | 164 | $19,001.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $120.12 | 164 | $19,699.68 | $19,754.14 |
+$698.48 (+3.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $120.69 | 163 | $19,672.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $121.20 | 163 | $19,754.79 | $19,836.45 |
+$82.31 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:50pm ET | $117.14 | 169 | $19,795.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $115.76 | 169 | $19,563.44 | $19,604.07 |
$-232.38 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $118.56 | 165 | $19,562.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 1:05pm ET | $117.24 | 165 | $19,344.60 | $19,386.27 |
$-217.80 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:50pm ET | $119.53 | 162 | $19,363.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $118.06 | 162 | $19,125.23 | $19,147.64 |
$-238.63 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $107.44 | 178 | $19,123.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $106.33 | 178 | $18,925.85 | $18,949.61 |
$-198.03 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $109.22 | 173 | $18,894.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:00pm ET | $107.97 | 173 | $18,679.66 | $18,734.90 |
$-214.71 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $82.89 | 226 | $18,734.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $81.86 | 226 | $18,501.49 | $18,502.12 |
$-232.78 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $87.39 | 211 | $18,439.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $86.39 | 211 | $18,228.29 | $18,290.59 |
$-211.53 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET | $87.71 | 208 | $18,242.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $86.79 | 208 | $18,052.32 | $18,100.27 |
$-190.32 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $75.03 | 241 | $18,082.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $75.94 | 241 | $18,301.54 | $18,319.58 |
+$219.31 (+1.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.05 | 254 | $18,300.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $67.79 | 254 | $17,219.93 | $17,238.81 |
$-1,080.77 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.20 | 242 | $17,230.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.19 | 242 | $16,260.95 | $16,269.36 |
$-969.45 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.96 | 211 | $16,239.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 10:55am ET | $73.04 | 211 | $15,412.49 | $15,442.24 |
$-827.12 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.24 | 205 | $15,424.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $86.73 | 205 | $17,779.65 | $17,797.69 |
+$2,355.45 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $90.10 | 197 | $17,749.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $85.58 | 197 | $16,858.57 | $16,906.56 |
$-891.13 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,906.56
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,906.56
Total Return:
+69.07%