Compendium › Surge › IBM
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
IBM
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 26 trades in period

-11.56%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,507.34
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$14,142.82
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:23:25

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
11.8/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 27.7/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 20.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,140
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,142.82
Current Value
$12,507.34
Period P&L
$-1,635.48
Max Drawdown
-13.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.25

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
10 / 16
Best Trade
+2.58%
Worst Trade
-5.13%
Avg Trade Return
-0.45%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$700,461.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,635.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,635.48
Gross Return
-11.56%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $14,142.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 3:40pm ET $306.82 45 $13,806.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 3:15pm ET $314.72 45 $14,162.40 $14,445.30 +$355.50
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 3:20pm ET $314.52 45 $14,153.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET $307.22 45 $13,824.90 $14,116.80 $-328.50
(-2.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 10:15am ET $309.58 45 $13,930.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:55am ET $306.37 45 $13,786.65 $13,972.58 $-144.22
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET $305.28 45 $13,737.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET $302.22 45 $13,599.90 $13,834.88 $-137.70
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 10:40am ET $300.28 46 $13,812.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:05am ET $296.22 46 $13,626.12 $13,648.12 $-186.76
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET $296.83 45 $13,357.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 10:55am ET $304.29 45 $13,693.05 $13,983.82 +$335.70
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET $304.35 45 $13,695.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET $300.89 45 $13,539.83 $13,827.78 $-156.04
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 10:10am ET $306.56 45 $13,795.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 10:35am ET $303.45 45 $13,655.03 $13,687.60 $-140.18
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET $303.80 45 $13,670.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 12:50pm ET $306.81 45 $13,806.45 $13,823.27 +$135.67
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 12:55pm ET $306.85 45 $13,808.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 1:25pm ET $309.07 45 $13,908.02 $13,923.27 +$100.00
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 12:20pm ET $311.56 44 $13,708.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 12:50pm ET $311.68 44 $13,713.92 $13,928.55 +$5.28
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 10:10am ET $303.86 45 $13,673.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 10:00am ET $299.14 45 $13,461.30 $13,716.37 $-212.18
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 12:50pm ET $302.76 45 $13,624.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 1:20pm ET $303.56 45 $13,660.20 $13,752.37 +$36.00
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 2:15pm ET $303.77 45 $13,669.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 11:40am ET $304.26 45 $13,691.70 $13,774.65 +$22.28
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 2:30pm ET $307.38 44 $13,524.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 10:00am ET $303.46 44 $13,352.24 $13,602.17 $-172.48
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $299.99 45 $13,499.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 1:30pm ET $299.34 45 $13,470.20 $13,572.82 $-29.35
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 11:00am ET $300.85 45 $13,538.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:30am ET $304.27 45 $13,691.93 $13,726.49 +$153.67
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $304.02 45 $13,680.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 2:50pm ET $311.86 45 $14,033.92 $14,079.51 +$353.02
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 2:10pm ET $307.44 45 $13,834.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $303.95 45 $13,677.75 $13,922.68 $-156.83
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $306.59 45 $13,796.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $295.18 45 $13,283.10 $13,409.46 $-513.22
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:05pm ET $297.46 45 $13,385.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 3:20pm ET $294.32 45 $13,244.40 $13,268.16 $-141.30
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:20am ET $313.06 42 $13,148.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $296.99 42 $12,473.58 $12,593.22 $-674.94
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $291.06 43 $12,515.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $297.08 43 $12,774.44 $12,852.08 +$258.86
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $297.63 43 $12,798.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $294.44 43 $12,660.92 $12,714.91 $-137.17
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $297.34 42 $12,488.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:45am ET $293.64 42 $12,332.88 $12,559.51 $-155.40
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $263.13 47 $12,366.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $262.02 47 $12,314.71 $12,507.34 $-52.17
(-0.4%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,507.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,507.34
Total Return: +25.07%
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