MARA Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 34 trades in period
-19.20%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,126.96
Current Value
24%
Win Rate
$10,058.13
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.6/10
Raw Quality
3.6/100
× Confidence 0.97
= 3.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,406
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,058.13
Current Value
$8,126.96
Period P&L
$-1,931.17
Max Drawdown
-25.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
8 /
26
Best Trade
+15.16%
Worst Trade
-6.90%
Avg Trade Return
-0.56%
Avg Hold Time
18.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$628,912.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,931.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,931.17
Gross Return
-19.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-19.20%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,058.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 2:35pm ET | $15.62 | 643 | $10,046.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $16.09 | 643 | $10,345.87 | $10,357.45 |
+$299.32 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $12.65 | 819 | $10,356.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:20pm ET | $12.51 | 819 | $10,241.60 | $10,242.54 |
$-114.91 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 12:40pm ET | $11.90 | 860 | $10,234.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $11.66 | 860 | $10,027.60 | $10,036.14 |
$-206.40 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:45pm ET | $10.76 | 932 | $10,028.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 2:35pm ET | $11.09 | 932 | $10,331.97 | $10,339.79 |
+$303.65 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 12:30pm ET | $11.07 | 934 | $10,334.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 12:55pm ET | $10.86 | 934 | $10,138.57 | $10,143.65 |
$-196.14 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 1:10pm ET | $11.39 | 890 | $10,132.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 3:45pm ET | $11.26 | 890 | $10,021.40 | $10,032.31 |
$-111.34 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $12.17 | 824 | $10,028.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:30am ET | $12.00 | 824 | $9,888.08 | $9,892.31 |
$-140.00 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 1:10pm ET | $12.31 | 803 | $9,886.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 1:20pm ET | $12.17 | 803 | $9,773.39 | $9,779.25 |
$-113.06 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $12.48 | 783 | $9,771.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 2:10pm ET | $12.26 | 783 | $9,595.67 | $9,603.15 |
$-176.10 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:25am ET | $12.06 | 796 | $9,595.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:55am ET | $12.39 | 796 | $9,862.44 | $9,869.81 |
+$266.66 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $12.11 | 815 | $9,869.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 3:50pm ET | $11.99 | 815 | $9,767.78 | $9,767.93 |
$-101.88 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 3:55pm ET | $11.86 | 823 | $9,760.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:50am ET | $11.60 | 823 | $9,542.69 | $9,549.84 |
$-218.09 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $10.16 | 940 | $9,545.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 11:45am ET | $10.05 | 940 | $9,442.30 | $9,446.44 |
$-103.40 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 10:05am ET | $10.62 | 889 | $9,441.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 10:35am ET | $10.46 | 889 | $9,294.50 | $9,299.76 |
$-146.68 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:15pm ET | $9.89 | 940 | $9,291.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $9.53 | 940 | $8,957.26 | $8,965.12 |
$-334.64 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $9.50 | 943 | $8,958.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $9.75 | 943 | $9,194.25 | $9,200.87 |
+$235.75 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $10.72 | 858 | $9,193.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $10.58 | 858 | $9,077.64 | $9,085.04 |
$-115.83 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:25am ET | $10.43 | 871 | $9,083.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:35am ET | $10.30 | 871 | $8,966.95 | $8,968.50 |
$-116.54 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $10.53 | 851 | $8,961.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:00pm ET | $10.82 | 851 | $9,203.57 | $9,211.04 |
+$242.54 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $11.19 | 823 | $9,205.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $11.04 | 823 | $9,087.90 | $9,093.68 |
$-117.36 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $11.47 | 792 | $9,084.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.22 | 792 | $8,882.28 | $8,891.72 |
$-201.96 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 12:10pm ET | $10.88 | 817 | $8,888.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $10.77 | 817 | $8,795.01 | $8,797.76 |
$-93.96 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $10.39 | 847 | $8,796.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $10.68 | 847 | $9,045.96 | $9,047.63 |
+$249.87 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $10.18 | 889 | $9,045.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:10pm ET | $10.06 | 889 | $8,943.34 | $8,945.39 |
$-102.24 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.35 | 956 | $8,943.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $9.25 | 956 | $8,843.00 | $8,845.01 |
$-100.38 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $9.36 | 944 | $8,835.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $9.24 | 944 | $8,727.28 | $8,736.54 |
$-108.47 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $7.61 | 1,148 | $8,730.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $7.84 | 1,148 | $9,006.06 | $9,012.06 |
+$275.52 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 1,086 | $9,008.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.19 | 1,086 | $8,888.91 | $8,892.60 |
$-119.46 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $8.14 | 1,093 | $8,891.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $8.02 | 1,093 | $8,771.32 | $8,772.37 |
$-120.23 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $7.86 | 1,116 | $8,766.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $7.71 | 1,116 | $8,605.92 | $8,612.11 |
$-160.26 (-1.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.28 | 928 | $8,611.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.64 | 928 | $8,017.92 | $8,018.19 |
$-593.92 (-6.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.57 | 935 | $8,017.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 935 | $7,480.00 | $7,480.57 |
$-537.62 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.40 | 795 | $7,473.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $10.82 | 795 | $8,605.87 | $8,613.45 |
+$1,132.88 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.85 | 726 | $8,603.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.18 | 726 | $8,116.61 | $8,126.96 |
$-486.49 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,126.96
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,873.04
Total Return:
-18.73%