Compendium › Surge › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 17 trades in period

-0.86%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,041.76
Current Value
53%
Win Rate
$10,128.65
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:31:29

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
1.3/25
Win Rate
3.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 9.5/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 7.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,879
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
130 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,128.65
Current Value
$10,041.76
Period P&L
$-86.89
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
9 / 8
Best Trade
+1.04%
Worst Trade
-1.38%
Avg Trade Return
-0.05%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$341,254.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-86.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-86.89
Gross Return
-0.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 130 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,128.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 12:45pm ET $304.92 33 $10,062.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 1:15pm ET $307.60 33 $10,150.64 $10,216.93 +$88.28
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 10:25am ET $309.88 32 $9,916.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 10:55am ET $307.96 32 $9,854.72 $10,155.49 $-61.44
(-0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 1:25pm ET $307.03 33 $10,131.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 1:55pm ET $308.41 33 $10,177.37 $10,200.87 +$45.38
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 11:40am ET $313.52 32 $10,032.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 2:25pm ET $310.20 32 $9,926.40 $10,094.55 $-106.32
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 3:35pm ET $311.22 32 $9,959.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:05am ET $314.46 32 $10,062.56 $10,198.07 +$103.52
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET $314.35 32 $10,059.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 10:55am ET $317.51 32 $10,160.32 $10,299.19 +$101.12
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 2:45pm ET $318.46 32 $10,190.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 3:15pm ET $320.70 32 $10,262.24 $10,370.71 +$71.52
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET $318.09 32 $10,178.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET $313.71 32 $10,038.72 $10,230.71 $-140.00
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 11:05am ET $312.33 32 $9,994.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 2:30pm ET $310.54 32 $9,937.12 $10,173.27 $-57.44
(-0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:00am ET $302.12 33 $9,969.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:30am ET $304.30 33 $10,041.74 $10,245.05 +$71.78
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:45am ET $307.67 33 $10,153.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:15am ET $305.60 33 $10,084.64 $10,176.58 $-68.47
(-0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 3:05pm ET $307.77 33 $10,156.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $307.00 33 $10,131.00 $10,151.17 $-25.41
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 12:00pm ET $308.19 32 $9,862.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $310.88 32 $9,948.16 $10,237.13 +$85.96
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:55am ET $316.59 32 $10,130.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:00am ET $313.08 32 $10,018.56 $10,124.97 $-112.16
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET $322.54 31 $9,998.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:45am ET $322.83 31 $10,007.88 $10,134.11 +$9.14
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $324.25 31 $10,051.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET $324.75 31 $10,067.25 $10,149.61 +$15.50
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET $327.41 30 $9,822.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $323.82 30 $9,714.45 $10,041.76 $-107.85
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,041.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$41.76
Total Return: +0.42%
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