Compendium › Surge › MRK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 26 trades in period

+8.20%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,256.62
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$7,631.10
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:48:36

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
79.9 overbought
20d Trend
+11.9%
5d Trend
+9.6%
EMA20 Dist
+7.7%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
96%
Bounce Ratio
5.6×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 7.0/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 5.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,481
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
136 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,631.10
Current Value
$8,256.62
Period P&L
$625.52
Max Drawdown
-38.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
15 / 11
Best Trade
+3.41%
Worst Trade
-2.91%
Avg Trade Return
+0.32%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$411,544.09
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$625.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$625.52
Gross Return
+8.20%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 136 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,631.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 3:20pm ET $86.12 88 $7,578.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 3:50pm ET $86.15 88 $7,581.20 $7,634.18 +$3.08
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 10:20am ET $89.18 85 $7,579.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 10:00am ET $92.17 85 $7,834.03 $7,888.33 +$254.15
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 10:40am ET $94.03 83 $7,804.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 2:40pm ET $93.03 83 $7,721.49 $7,805.26 $-83.07
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:05am ET $93.81 83 $7,785.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:35am ET $93.84 83 $7,788.72 $7,808.16 +$2.90
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 11:35am ET $94.36 82 $7,737.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 2:40pm ET $93.37 82 $7,656.34 $7,727.39 $-80.77
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 10:10am ET $97.15 79 $7,674.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 11:05am ET $95.78 79 $7,566.62 $7,619.55 $-107.84
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 10:45am ET $97.27 78 $7,587.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 12:35pm ET $99.78 78 $7,782.84 $7,815.33 +$195.78
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 10:35am ET $104.28 74 $7,716.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 11:05am ET $105.22 74 $7,786.28 $7,885.26 +$69.93
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 11:40am ET $105.54 74 $7,809.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 10:00am ET $104.22 74 $7,712.28 $7,787.58 $-97.68
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 11:30am ET $99.01 78 $7,722.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 12:00pm ET $99.69 78 $7,775.43 $7,840.23 +$52.65
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 11:20am ET $99.25 78 $7,741.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 11:50am ET $99.83 78 $7,786.74 $7,885.48 +$45.25
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 3:25pm ET $101.25 77 $7,796.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $101.09 77 $7,783.93 $7,873.17 $-12.31
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET $103.24 76 $7,846.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 11:40am ET $104.70 76 $7,957.20 $7,984.13 +$110.96
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 12:45pm ET $106.81 74 $7,903.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 10:10am ET $107.42 74 $7,949.07 $8,029.26 +$45.13
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $105.95 75 $7,945.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 11:30am ET $106.82 75 $8,011.50 $8,094.89 +$65.63
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET $109.47 73 $7,991.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 11:55am ET $110.07 73 $8,035.29 $8,138.87 +$43.98
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:20pm ET $111.43 73 $8,134.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:00am ET $109.90 73 $8,022.70 $8,027.55 $-111.32
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $109.03 73 $7,959.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:00am ET $111.26 73 $8,121.98 $8,190.34 +$162.79
(+2.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $111.78 73 $8,159.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $109.89 73 $8,021.97 $8,052.37 $-137.97
(-1.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET $109.14 73 $7,967.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET $108.29 73 $7,904.81 $7,989.95 $-62.42
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:25pm ET $109.90 72 $7,912.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $112.65 72 $8,110.80 $8,187.95 +$198.00
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:35pm ET $112.65 72 $8,110.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $116.49 72 $8,387.28 $8,464.43 +$276.48
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 2:45pm ET $120.11 70 $8,407.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 3:35pm ET $118.89 70 $8,321.95 $8,378.68 $-85.75
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:40am ET $122.38 68 $8,321.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $118.82 68 $8,079.76 $8,136.94 $-241.74
(-2.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $118.08 68 $8,029.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:40am ET $121.19 68 $8,240.92 $8,348.42 +$211.48
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:45am ET $121.11 68 $8,235.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 3:45pm ET $119.76 68 $8,143.68 $8,256.62 $-91.80
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,256.62
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,743.38
Total Return: -17.43%
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