Compendium › Surge › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-12-20 to present • 16 trades in period

+9.07%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,119.05
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,194.73
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:23:56

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

19
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
9.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 20.2/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 19.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,964
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,194.73
Current Value
$11,119.05
Period P&L
$924.32
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
8 / 8
Best Trade
+8.28%
Worst Trade
-5.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$323,589.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$924.32
Net P&L (after fees)
$924.32
Gross Return
+9.07%
Net Return (after fees)
+9.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,194.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 11:10am ET $488.47 20 $9,769.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 2:35pm ET $487.27 20 $9,745.40 $10,170.73 $-24.00
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 12:00pm ET $475.77 21 $9,991.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:05am ET $470.44 21 $9,879.19 $10,058.75 $-111.98
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:45pm ET $476.07 21 $9,997.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:00am ET $489.65 21 $10,282.65 $10,343.93 +$285.18
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:05am ET $488.33 21 $10,254.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 10:00am ET $478.03 21 $10,038.63 $10,127.73 $-216.20
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 1:50pm ET $478.76 21 $10,053.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 2:20pm ET $479.06 21 $10,060.26 $10,134.00 +$6.27
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:50am ET $461.99 21 $9,701.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $452.83 21 $9,509.43 $9,941.64 $-192.36
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 11:30am ET $456.02 21 $9,576.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:00am ET $451.11 21 $9,473.21 $9,838.49 $-103.15
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:50pm ET $451.47 21 $9,480.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:25am ET $463.15 21 $9,726.15 $10,083.69 +$245.20
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:30am ET $464.32 21 $9,750.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 11:00am ET $471.40 21 $9,899.40 $10,232.48 +$148.79
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 11:10am ET $472.20 21 $9,916.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 11:40am ET $479.62 21 $10,072.02 $10,388.30 +$155.82
(+1.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:45am ET $480.15 21 $10,083.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 12:15pm ET $479.90 21 $10,077.90 $10,383.05 $-5.25
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:25am ET $417.98 24 $10,031.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:15pm ET $413.45 24 $9,922.80 $10,274.45 $-108.60
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET $401.74 25 $10,043.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:25am ET $412.02 25 $10,300.38 $10,531.33 +$256.88
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:30am ET $411.86 25 $10,296.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET $423.32 25 $10,583.00 $10,817.95 +$286.62
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 28 $10,771.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $416.55 28 $11,663.54 $11,710.17 +$892.22
(+8.3%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
48d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $464.57 25 $11,614.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 2:50pm ET $440.92 25 $11,023.00 $11,119.05 $-591.12
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,119.05
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,119.05
Total Return: +11.19%
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