Compendium › Surge › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-12-20 to present • 24 trades in period

+84.44%
Last 6 Months Return
$41,752.11
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$22,636.78
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 14:28:27

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

70
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.8/25
Win Rate
2.6/15
Profit Factor
6.8/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 72.2/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 69.9

30-Day Momentum

10
+4.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.7 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-60 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,114
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$22,636.78
Current Value
$41,752.11
Period P&L
$19,115.33
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.37

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
13 / 11
Best Trade
+18.92%
Worst Trade
-9.77%
Avg Trade Return
+2.88%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,369,043.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$19,115.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$19,115.33
Gross Return
+84.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+84.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $22,636.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 10:05am ET $288.70 78 $22,518.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 11:25am ET $285.75 78 $22,288.40 $22,406.63 $-230.15
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 12:30pm ET $288.58 77 $22,220.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 11:00am ET $295.82 77 $22,778.14 $22,964.11 +$557.48
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:15am ET $309.77 74 $22,922.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $306.49 74 $22,680.26 $22,721.76 $-242.35
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:35pm ET $335.67 67 $22,489.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:20am ET $344.44 67 $23,077.15 $23,309.33 +$587.57
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:10am ET $339.46 68 $23,083.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET $344.55 68 $23,429.40 $23,655.45 +$346.12
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET $382.36 61 $23,324.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET $392.15 61 $23,921.15 $24,252.36 +$596.91
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:05am ET $406.78 59 $24,000.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET $402.61 59 $23,753.70 $24,006.04 $-246.32
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 1:15pm ET $414.10 57 $23,603.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET $427.65 57 $24,376.05 $24,778.39 +$772.35
(+3.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 3:05pm ET $437.85 56 $24,519.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET $433.22 56 $24,260.04 $24,518.83 $-259.56
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET $430.15 56 $24,088.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:40pm ET $441.12 56 $24,702.72 $25,132.87 +$614.04
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:15pm ET $395.69 63 $24,928.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $383.05 63 $24,132.30 $24,336.71 $-796.16
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $391.42 62 $24,268.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $387.37 62 $24,016.94 $24,085.30 $-251.41
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET $381.20 63 $24,015.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $376.54 63 $23,722.02 $23,791.41 $-293.89
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 3:10pm ET $411.76 57 $23,470.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:00am ET $429.02 57 $24,454.42 $24,775.51 +$984.10
(+4.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET $409.01 60 $24,540.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 12:45pm ET $419.89 60 $25,193.39 $25,428.26 +$652.75
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $446.54 56 $25,006.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $424.00 56 $23,744.00 $24,166.02 $-1,262.24
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $348.28 69 $24,031.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $414.18 69 $28,578.76 $28,713.46 +$4,547.44
(+18.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $436.00 65 $28,340.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET $502.30 65 $32,649.82 $33,023.28 +$4,309.82
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $527.40 62 $32,698.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $609.37 62 $37,780.94 $38,105.42 +$5,082.14
(+15.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
20 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 9:30am ET $679.00 56 $38,024.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $791.74 56 $44,337.72 $44,419.14 +$6,313.72
(+16.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
21 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:30am ET $811.00 54 $43,794.11 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $731.76 54 $39,515.04 $40,140.07 $-4,279.07
(-9.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
22 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:30am ET $822.46 48 $39,478.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $955.96 48 $45,886.08 $46,548.07 +$6,408.00
(+16.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET $1,009.50 46 $46,437.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $953.80 46 $43,874.80 $43,985.87 $-2,562.20
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET $938.26 46 $43,159.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $889.70 46 $40,926.20 $41,752.11 $-2,233.76
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $41,752.11
Net Profit/Loss: +$31,752.11
Total Return: +317.52%
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