Compendium › Surge › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 31 trades in period

+74.38%
Last 6 Months Return
$38,105.42
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$21,851.37
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:17:52

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

68
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
19.6/25
Win Rate
2.6/15
Profit Factor
6.4/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 70.8/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 68.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,311
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$21,851.37
Current Value
$38,105.42
Period P&L
$16,254.05
Max Drawdown
-21.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
15 / 16
Best Trade
+18.92%
Worst Trade
-5.05%
Avg Trade Return
+1.97%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,484,328.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$16,254.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$16,254.05
Gross Return
+74.38%
Net Return (after fees)
+74.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 31 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $21,851.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 11:15am ET $243.98 89 $21,714.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET $235.93 89 $20,997.33 $21,134.48 $-716.89
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 10:40am ET $236.47 89 $21,045.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET $253.60 89 $22,570.40 $22,659.05 +$1,524.57
(+7.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 11:05am ET $245.06 92 $22,545.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 10:00am ET $233.81 92 $21,510.76 $21,624.22 $-1,034.83
(-4.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 10:10am ET $235.68 91 $21,446.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 10:00am ET $250.79 91 $22,821.89 $22,999.23 +$1,375.01
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:20am ET $229.50 100 $22,950.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 12:00pm ET $235.25 100 $23,525.00 $23,574.23 +$575.00
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:50am ET $225.18 104 $23,419.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 11:30am ET $222.73 104 $23,163.92 $23,319.10 $-255.13
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 10:05am ET $233.22 99 $23,088.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 10:55am ET $230.24 99 $22,793.76 $23,024.08 $-295.02
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 10:50am ET $241.13 95 $22,906.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 10:35am ET $238.67 95 $22,673.65 $22,790.85 $-233.23
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 10:25am ET $238.77 95 $22,683.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 11:25am ET $236.26 95 $22,444.70 $22,552.39 $-238.46
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 10:50am ET $245.76 91 $22,364.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET $252.03 91 $22,934.28 $23,122.51 +$570.12
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 10:15am ET $263.47 87 $22,921.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 12:40pm ET $260.80 87 $22,689.60 $22,890.22 $-232.29
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET $260.00 88 $22,880.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 12:30pm ET $257.12 88 $22,626.56 $22,636.78 $-253.44
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 10:05am ET $288.70 78 $22,518.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 11:25am ET $285.75 78 $22,288.40 $22,406.63 $-230.15
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 12:30pm ET $288.58 77 $22,220.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 11:00am ET $295.82 77 $22,778.14 $22,964.11 +$557.48
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:15am ET $309.77 74 $22,922.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $306.49 74 $22,680.26 $22,721.76 $-242.35
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:35pm ET $335.67 67 $22,489.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:20am ET $344.44 67 $23,077.15 $23,309.33 +$587.57
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:10am ET $339.46 68 $23,083.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:40am ET $344.55 68 $23,429.40 $23,655.45 +$346.12
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET $382.36 61 $23,324.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET $392.15 61 $23,921.15 $24,252.36 +$596.91
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:05am ET $406.78 59 $24,000.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:25am ET $402.61 59 $23,753.70 $24,006.04 $-246.32
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 1:15pm ET $414.10 57 $23,603.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET $427.65 57 $24,376.05 $24,778.39 +$772.35
(+3.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 3:05pm ET $437.85 56 $24,519.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET $433.22 56 $24,260.04 $24,518.83 $-259.56
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET $430.15 56 $24,088.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:40pm ET $441.12 56 $24,702.72 $25,132.87 +$614.04
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:15pm ET $395.69 63 $24,928.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $383.05 63 $24,132.30 $24,336.71 $-796.16
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $391.42 62 $24,268.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $387.37 62 $24,016.94 $24,085.30 $-251.41
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:10am ET $381.20 63 $24,015.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:30am ET $376.54 63 $23,722.02 $23,791.41 $-293.89
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 3:10pm ET $411.76 57 $23,470.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:00am ET $429.02 57 $24,454.42 $24,775.51 +$984.10
(+4.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET $409.01 60 $24,540.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 12:45pm ET $419.89 60 $25,193.39 $25,428.26 +$652.75
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $446.54 56 $25,006.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $424.00 56 $23,744.00 $24,166.02 $-1,262.24
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $348.28 69 $24,031.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $414.18 69 $28,578.76 $28,713.46 +$4,547.44
(+18.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
30 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $436.00 65 $28,340.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET $502.30 65 $32,649.82 $33,023.28 +$4,309.82
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10d held
31 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $527.40 62 $32,698.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $609.37 62 $37,780.94 $38,105.42 +$5,082.14
(+15.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $38,105.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$28,105.42
Total Return: +281.05%
Back to Surge