Compendium › Surge › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 26 trades in period

+2.71%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,472.43
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$11,169.53
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:47:27

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

17
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
9.9/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 17.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 17.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,997
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,169.53
Current Value
$11,472.43
Period P&L
$302.90
Max Drawdown
-31.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
7 / 19
Best Trade
+16.98%
Worst Trade
-5.41%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$577,993.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$302.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$302.90
Gross Return
+2.71%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.71%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $11,169.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 10:05am ET $7.04 1,587 $11,164.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:35am ET $6.96 1,587 $11,045.36 $11,050.35 $-119.18
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 10:30am ET $6.15 1,796 $11,044.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:55am ET $6.08 1,796 $10,910.70 $10,916.73 $-133.62
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 3:35pm ET $6.03 1,811 $10,911.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET $5.92 1,811 $10,717.14 $10,722.59 $-194.14
(-1.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET $5.61 1,912 $10,719.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET $5.80 1,912 $11,089.60 $11,092.37 +$369.78
(+3.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 1:35pm ET $5.85 1,897 $11,087.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 3:45pm ET $5.79 1,897 $10,974.15 $10,978.55 $-113.82
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 2:40pm ET $5.01 2,193 $10,975.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 3:10pm ET $5.07 2,193 $11,107.55 $11,110.13 +$131.58
(+1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET $5.23 2,125 $11,106.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 10:05am ET $5.16 2,125 $10,954.38 $10,957.77 $-152.36
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 11:45am ET $5.08 2,157 $10,957.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 9, 2025 12:45pm ET $5.03 2,157 $10,838.93 $10,839.14 $-118.63
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 11:50am ET $5.05 2,148 $10,836.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET $4.96 2,148 $10,643.34 $10,645.82 $-193.32
(-1.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 10:20am ET $5.03 2,118 $10,642.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 2:55pm ET $5.18 2,118 $10,978.65 $10,981.52 +$335.70
(+3.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 10:45am ET $5.08 2,161 $10,977.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 15, 2025 11:45am ET $5.02 2,161 $10,851.03 $10,854.67 $-126.85
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 12:35pm ET $5.03 2,157 $10,849.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 1:05pm ET $5.00 2,157 $10,785.00 $10,789.96 $-64.71
(-0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 10:30am ET $5.09 2,121 $10,785.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 10:35am ET $5.03 2,121 $10,670.11 $10,674.79 $-115.17
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 2:40pm ET $5.31 2,010 $10,673.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 10:00am ET $5.69 2,010 $11,445.14 $11,446.83 +$772.04
(+7.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 10:25am ET $5.78 1,980 $11,444.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 10:35am ET $5.71 1,980 $11,309.17 $11,311.60 $-135.23
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:05am ET $4.88 2,317 $11,306.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:15am ET $4.82 2,317 $11,173.96 $11,178.60 $-133.00
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 12:15pm ET $4.64 2,409 $11,177.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 12:45pm ET $4.67 2,409 $11,239.91 $11,241.47 +$62.87
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET $4.65 2,419 $11,238.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET $4.59 2,419 $11,103.21 $11,106.01 $-135.46
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:15am ET $4.89 2,273 $11,103.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 12:55pm ET $4.83 2,273 $10,978.59 $10,981.00 $-125.01
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 11:35am ET $4.87 2,254 $10,976.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET $4.82 2,254 $10,866.53 $10,870.55 $-110.45
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:10am ET $4.93 2,207 $10,869.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET $5.05 2,207 $11,156.38 $11,157.46 +$286.91
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $5.03 2,215 $11,152.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:35pm ET $4.98 2,215 $11,030.70 $11,035.64 $-121.82
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:20am ET $5.09 2,168 $11,035.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:10am ET $5.03 2,168 $10,915.88 $10,916.40 $-119.24
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $5.27 2,071 $10,914.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 9:35am ET $6.16 2,071 $12,767.71 $12,769.94 +$1,853.54
(+17.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $5.63 2,270 $12,768.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET $5.34 2,270 $12,126.57 $12,127.76 $-642.18
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $6.29 1,928 $12,123.84 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:55am ET $5.95 1,928 $11,468.52 $11,472.43 $-655.33
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,472.43
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,472.43
Total Return: +14.72%
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