Compendium › Surge › PANW
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PANW
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 25 trades in period

+12.56%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,696.03
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$8,613.79
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:19:04

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 6.3/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 5.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,623
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,613.79
Current Value
$9,696.03
Period P&L
$1,082.24
Max Drawdown
-26.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
10 / 15
Best Trade
+15.19%
Worst Trade
-2.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.53%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$417,115.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,082.24
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,082.24
Gross Return
+12.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,613.79 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 3:05pm ET $212.46 40 $8,498.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 10:00am ET $208.47 40 $8,338.80 $8,454.19 $-159.60
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 2:40pm ET $212.08 39 $8,271.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 3:10pm ET $216.18 39 $8,430.83 $8,613.90 +$159.71
(+1.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 3:20pm ET $216.15 39 $8,429.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 3:50pm ET $218.71 39 $8,529.69 $8,713.78 +$99.88
(+1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET $203.78 42 $8,558.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET $204.46 42 $8,587.32 $8,742.55 +$28.77
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 10:25am ET $201.99 43 $8,685.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 12:35pm ET $199.93 43 $8,596.95 $8,654.14 $-88.41
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 11:35am ET $185.16 46 $8,517.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 12:05pm ET $185.30 46 $8,523.57 $8,660.35 +$6.21
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 11:10am ET $190.73 45 $8,582.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET $187.85 45 $8,453.25 $8,530.75 $-129.60
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 12:10pm ET $191.53 44 $8,427.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 3:50pm ET $189.34 44 $8,330.96 $8,434.39 $-96.36
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 10:40am ET $190.99 44 $8,403.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 11:10am ET $194.43 44 $8,554.92 $8,585.75 +$151.36
(+1.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 10:10am ET $199.29 43 $8,569.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 11:30am ET $197.14 43 $8,477.02 $8,493.30 $-92.45
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 11:55am ET $188.20 45 $8,469.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 12:50pm ET $186.21 45 $8,379.45 $8,403.75 $-89.55
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 10:10am ET $190.00 44 $8,360.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 10:00am ET $187.63 44 $8,255.72 $8,299.47 $-104.28
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 11:25am ET $188.19 44 $8,280.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 29, 2025 11:55am ET $186.79 44 $8,218.76 $8,237.87 $-61.60
(-0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $185.32 44 $8,153.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $183.43 44 $8,070.70 $8,154.71 $-83.16
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:20am ET $184.80 44 $8,131.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $190.06 44 $8,362.64 $8,386.15 +$231.44
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:30am ET $191.05 43 $8,215.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 1:25pm ET $195.87 43 $8,422.58 $8,593.58 +$207.43
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET $193.96 44 $8,534.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:50am ET $191.84 44 $8,440.96 $8,500.30 $-93.28
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:45am ET $189.05 44 $8,318.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $183.80 44 $8,086.98 $8,269.08 $-231.22
(-2.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:25am ET $186.37 44 $8,200.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $184.43 44 $8,114.70 $8,183.72 $-85.36
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET $183.50 44 $8,073.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 10:45am ET $183.06 44 $8,054.64 $8,164.58 $-19.14
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET $177.77 45 $7,999.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 11:10am ET $176.80 45 $7,956.00 $8,121.16 $-43.42
(-0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:20am ET $165.80 48 $7,958.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $163.52 48 $7,848.96 $8,011.72 $-109.44
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $158.50 50 $7,925.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:45pm ET $162.61 50 $8,130.51 $8,217.23 +$205.51
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:50pm ET $162.40 50 $8,120.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $166.66 50 $8,332.98 $8,430.21 +$212.98
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $151.53 55 $8,334.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $174.54 55 $9,599.97 $9,696.03 +$1,265.82
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,696.03
Net Profit/Loss: $-303.97
Total Return: -3.04%
Back to Surge