RIOT Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 34 trades in period
+39.69%
Last 6 Months Return
$21,488.55
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$15,382.96
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
34
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.6/35
Total Return
15.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
34.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 33.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,042
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$15,382.96
Current Value
$21,488.55
Period P&L
$6,105.59
Max Drawdown
-28.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.22
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
34
Winners / Losers
14 /
20
Best Trade
+21.47%
Worst Trade
-5.78%
Avg Trade Return
+1.11%
Avg Hold Time
22.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,109,894.61
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,105.59
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,105.59
Gross Return
+39.69%
Net Return (after fees)
+39.69%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 34 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $15,382.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 3:40pm ET | $16.90 | 910 | $15,374.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $17.76 | 910 | $16,161.60 | $16,170.11 |
+$787.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:30am ET | $13.94 | 1,160 | $16,164.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:30am ET | $14.29 | 1,160 | $16,574.66 | $16,580.17 |
+$410.06 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:10am ET | $14.33 | 1,157 | $16,579.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:15am ET | $14.06 | 1,157 | $16,264.64 | $16,265.00 |
$-315.17 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:00am ET | $14.30 | 1,137 | $16,259.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 10:05am ET | $14.07 | 1,137 | $15,991.91 | $15,997.80 |
$-267.20 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 10:30am ET | $13.60 | 1,176 | $15,987.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 11:00am ET | $13.78 | 1,176 | $16,199.40 | $16,209.48 |
+$211.68 (+1.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 11:15am ET | $13.90 | 1,166 | $16,207.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 3:30pm ET | $14.32 | 1,166 | $16,691.29 | $16,693.37 |
+$483.89 (+3.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 12:45pm ET | $14.79 | 1,128 | $16,683.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 2:55pm ET | $15.20 | 1,128 | $17,139.96 | $17,150.21 |
+$456.84 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:30am ET | $16.57 | 1,035 | $17,149.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 11:00am ET | $16.33 | 1,035 | $16,901.55 | $16,901.81 |
$-248.40 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET | $15.37 | 1,099 | $16,886.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 10:05am ET | $15.18 | 1,099 | $16,677.33 | $16,692.23 |
$-209.58 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 2:50pm ET | $15.80 | 1,056 | $16,684.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 3:45pm ET | $15.63 | 1,056 | $16,500.00 | $16,507.43 |
$-184.80 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 11:30am ET | $15.37 | 1,074 | $16,502.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 12:10pm ET | $15.18 | 1,074 | $16,297.95 | $16,303.37 |
$-204.06 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $15.62 | 1,043 | $16,291.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 2:40pm ET | $15.41 | 1,043 | $16,072.53 | $16,084.24 |
$-219.13 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 3:20pm ET | $15.44 | 1,042 | $16,083.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET | $16.06 | 1,042 | $16,729.31 | $16,730.28 |
+$646.04 (+4.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:25am ET | $14.14 | 1,183 | $16,721.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 11:50am ET | $13.93 | 1,183 | $16,473.28 | $16,481.85 |
$-248.43 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 12:55pm ET | $13.93 | 1,183 | $16,479.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $13.45 | 1,183 | $15,911.11 | $15,913.77 |
$-568.08 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $13.68 | 1,163 | $15,909.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $14.04 | 1,163 | $16,322.71 | $16,326.64 |
+$412.87 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $14.93 | 1,093 | $16,318.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $14.78 | 1,093 | $16,154.54 | $16,162.69 |
$-163.95 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $15.26 | 1,059 | $16,155.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:10am ET | $15.07 | 1,059 | $15,959.13 | $15,966.77 |
$-195.92 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:25am ET | $15.88 | 1,005 | $15,954.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $15.65 | 1,005 | $15,723.23 | $15,735.62 |
$-231.15 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.65 | 1,005 | $15,723.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:10pm ET | $15.48 | 1,005 | $15,557.40 | $15,569.80 |
$-165.82 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.52 | 888 | $15,555.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 11:00am ET | $17.22 | 888 | $15,291.36 | $15,305.44 |
$-264.36 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $18.78 | 814 | $15,286.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $18.59 | 814 | $15,128.19 | $15,146.79 |
$-158.65 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:40am ET | $18.59 | 814 | $15,132.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $18.38 | 814 | $14,957.25 | $14,971.78 |
$-175.01 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.32 | 864 | $14,960.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:10pm ET | $17.88 | 864 | $15,448.32 | $15,459.94 |
+$488.16 (+3.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.63 | 929 | $15,444.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $17.16 | 929 | $15,937.00 | $15,952.31 |
+$492.37 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:25pm ET | $15.65 | 1,019 | $15,947.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:15pm ET | $15.48 | 1,019 | $15,779.21 | $15,784.18 |
$-168.13 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $15.93 | 990 | $15,770.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:35am ET | $15.74 | 990 | $15,582.60 | $15,596.08 |
$-188.10 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $13.83 | 1,127 | $15,586.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:40pm ET | $14.23 | 1,127 | $16,031.58 | $16,041.25 |
+$445.17 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.48 | 1,107 | $16,034.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $14.85 | 1,107 | $16,438.84 | $16,445.19 |
+$403.94 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $14.94 | 1,101 | $16,443.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET | $15.46 | 1,101 | $17,016.07 | $17,017.82 |
+$572.63 (+3.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.68 | 1,159 | $17,014.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 12:25pm ET | $13.94 | 1,159 | $16,162.25 | $16,165.95 |
$-851.87 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.49 | 1,043 | $16,156.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.99 | 1,043 | $18,763.57 | $18,773.45 |
+$2,607.50 (+16.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.53 | 1,070 | $18,757.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:55am ET | $16.52 | 1,070 | $17,673.72 | $17,690.07 |
$-1,083.38 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.58 | 952 | $17,688.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $22.57 | 952 | $21,486.64 | $21,488.55 |
+$3,798.48 (+21.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$21,488.55
Net Profit/Loss:
+$11,488.55
Total Return:
+114.89%