SHIBUSD Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 39 trades in period
-11.64%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,928.16
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$8,926.19
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22 oversold
20d Trend
-35.2%
5d Trend
-32.9%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.2/100
× Confidence 0.88
= 4.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
52,270
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
182 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,926.19
Current Value
$7,928.16
Period P&L
$-1,038.72
Max Drawdown
-38.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
13 /
26
Best Trade
+4.77%
Worst Trade
-6.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
15.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$680,939.97
Estimated Fees
$1,702.35
Gross P&L
$-1,038.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,741.07
Gross Return
-11.64%
Net Return (after fees)
-30.71%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 182 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,926.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 11:45am ET | $0.00000915 | 976,607,650 | $8,935.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000889 | 976,607,650 | $8,682.04 | $8,682.04 |
$-253.92 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 1:35pm ET | $0.00000905 | 959,341,436 | $8,682.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 3:40pm ET | $0.00000895 | 959,341,436 | $8,586.11 | $8,586.11 |
$-95.93 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:25am ET | $0.00000941 | 912,445,270 | $8,586.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 11:25am ET | $0.00000965 | 912,445,270 | $8,805.10 | $8,805.10 |
+$218.99 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 2:40pm ET | $0.00001011 | 870,929,772 | $8,805.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000987 | 870,929,772 | $8,596.08 | $8,596.08 |
$-209.02 (-2.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 11:35am ET | $0.00000930 | 924,309,677 | $8,596.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $0.00000918 | 924,309,677 | $8,485.16 | $8,485.16 |
$-110.92 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 10:20am ET | $0.00000889 | 954,461,192 | $8,485.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000871 | 954,461,192 | $8,313.36 | $8,313.36 |
$-171.80 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:05am ET | $0.00000874 | 951,185,354 | $8,313.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:20am ET | $0.00000863 | 951,185,354 | $8,208.73 | $8,208.73 |
$-104.63 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 12:05pm ET | $0.00000802 | 1,023,532,418 | $8,208.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 12:50pm ET | $0.00000793 | 1,023,532,418 | $8,116.61 | $8,116.61 |
$-92.12 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 11:15am ET | $0.00000813 | 998,353,013 | $8,116.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 12:55pm ET | $0.00000834 | 998,353,013 | $8,326.26 | $8,326.26 |
+$209.65 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 11:10am ET | $0.00000843 | 987,693,950 | $8,326.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 1:15pm ET | $0.00000867 | 987,693,950 | $8,563.31 | $8,563.31 |
+$237.05 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000831 | 1,030,482,551 | $8,563.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 10:40am ET | $0.00000854 | 1,030,482,551 | $8,800.32 | $8,800.32 |
+$237.01 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $0.00000902 | 975,645,232 | $8,800.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 11:50am ET | $0.00000928 | 975,645,232 | $9,053.99 | $9,053.99 |
+$253.67 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.00000882 | 1,026,529,478 | $9,053.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 12:30pm ET | $0.00000873 | 1,026,529,478 | $8,961.60 | $8,961.60 |
$-92.39 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000865 | 1,036,023,121 | $8,961.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:00am ET | $0.00000888 | 1,036,023,121 | $9,199.89 | $9,199.89 |
+$238.29 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 11:15am ET | $0.00000856 | 1,074,753,504 | $9,199.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 1:35pm ET | $0.00000880 | 1,074,753,504 | $9,457.83 | $9,457.83 |
+$257.94 (+2.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 10:20am ET | $0.00000831 | 1,138,126,353 | $9,457.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:05am ET | $0.00000822 | 1,138,126,353 | $9,355.40 | $9,355.40 |
$-102.43 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:10am ET | $0.00000801 | 1,167,965,043 | $9,355.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $0.00000790 | 1,167,965,043 | $9,226.92 | $9,226.92 |
$-128.48 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET | $0.00000758 | 1,217,271,767 | $9,226.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 12:30pm ET | $0.00000747 | 1,217,271,767 | $9,093.02 | $9,093.02 |
$-133.90 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 11:15am ET | $0.00000717 | 1,268,203,626 | $9,093.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 12:55pm ET | $0.00000709 | 1,268,203,626 | $8,991.56 | $8,991.56 |
$-101.46 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 10:30am ET | $0.00000721 | 1,247,095,700 | $8,991.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000711 | 1,247,095,700 | $8,866.85 | $8,866.85 |
$-124.71 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.00000785 | 1,129,535,031 | $8,866.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:25am ET | $0.00000805 | 1,129,535,031 | $9,092.76 | $9,092.76 |
+$225.91 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.00000881 | 1,032,095,346 | $9,092.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000905 | 1,032,095,346 | $9,340.46 | $9,340.46 |
+$247.70 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000866 | 1,078,575,057 | $9,340.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000875 | 1,078,575,057 | $9,437.53 | $9,437.53 |
+$97.07 (+1.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $0.00000879 | 1,073,666,666 | $9,437.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000870 | 1,073,666,666 | $9,340.90 | $9,340.90 |
$-96.63 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000845 | 1,105,431,952 | $9,340.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000867 | 1,105,431,952 | $9,584.10 | $9,584.10 |
+$243.20 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $0.00000884 | 1,084,174,208 | $9,584.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000875 | 1,084,174,208 | $9,486.52 | $9,486.52 |
$-97.58 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $0.00000889 | 1,067,100,112 | $9,486.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000880 | 1,067,100,112 | $9,390.48 | $9,390.48 |
$-96.04 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $0.00000844 | 1,112,616,113 | $9,390.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000785 | 1,112,616,113 | $8,734.04 | $8,734.04 |
$-656.44 (-7.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $0.00000805 | 1,084,973,913 | $8,734.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 3:25pm ET | $0.00000796 | 1,084,973,913 | $8,636.39 | $8,636.39 |
$-97.65 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000789 | 1,094,599,493 | $8,636.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000779 | 1,094,599,493 | $8,526.93 | $8,526.93 |
$-109.46 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000792 | 1,076,632,575 | $8,526.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000770 | 1,076,632,575 | $8,290.07 | $8,290.07 |
$-236.86 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000778 | 1,065,561,696 | $8,290.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:40am ET | $0.00000767 | 1,065,561,696 | $8,172.86 | $8,172.86 |
$-117.21 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $0.00000771 | 1,060,033,722 | $8,172.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $0.00000763 | 1,060,033,722 | $8,088.06 | $8,088.06 |
$-84.80 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.00000701 | 1,153,788,873 | $8,088.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000692 | 1,153,788,873 | $7,984.22 | $7,984.22 |
$-103.84 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $0.00000694 | 1,150,463,976 | $7,984.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $0.00000683 | 1,150,463,976 | $7,857.67 | $7,857.67 |
$-126.55 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $0.00000622 | 1,263,290,996 | $7,857.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.00000639 | 1,263,290,996 | $8,072.43 | $8,072.43 |
+$214.76 (+2.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000608 | 1,327,702,302 | $8,072.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000600 | 1,327,702,302 | $7,966.21 | $7,966.21 |
$-106.22 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $0.00000629 | 1,266,488,076 | $7,966.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 15, 2026 9:35pm ET | $0.00000659 | 1,266,488,076 | $8,346.16 | $8,346.16 |
+$379.95 (+4.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 7:05am ET | $0.00000599 | 1,393,348,915 | $8,346.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 29, 2026 6:50pm ET | $0.00000569 | 1,393,348,915 | $7,928.16 | $7,928.16 |
$-458.69 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,928.16
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,071.84
Total Return:
-20.72%