Compendium › Surge › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 24 trades in period

+14.04%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,838.97
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$9,504.37
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:05:15

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
8.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 14.3/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 13.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,224
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,504.37
Current Value
$10,838.97
Period P&L
$1,334.60
Max Drawdown
-52.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
9 / 15
Best Trade
+15.13%
Worst Trade
-5.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.63%
Avg Hold Time
23.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$451,527.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,334.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,334.60
Gross Return
+14.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,504.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:30am ET $36.10 263 $9,494.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 11:35am ET $37.07 263 $9,749.41 $9,759.48 +$255.11
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 12:00pm ET $34.94 279 $9,748.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 12:15pm ET $34.59 279 $9,650.61 $9,661.83 $-97.65
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 11:00am ET $32.94 293 $9,649.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET $31.49 293 $9,226.57 $9,238.44 $-423.39
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 28, 2025 12:55pm ET $33.84 273 $9,238.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 10:00am ET $33.17 273 $9,055.41 $9,055.53 $-182.91
(-2.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 1:35pm ET $33.63 269 $9,045.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 11:20am ET $33.19 269 $8,928.11 $8,938.51 $-117.02
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 11:00am ET $33.26 268 $8,912.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 12:05pm ET $32.92 268 $8,822.56 $8,848.73 $-89.78
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 10:40am ET $33.93 260 $8,820.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 11:10am ET $34.40 260 $8,942.70 $8,970.93 +$122.20
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 11:15am ET $34.40 260 $8,942.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET $35.33 260 $9,184.50 $9,212.50 +$241.57
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 1:05pm ET $35.60 258 $9,183.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 8, 2025 1:55pm ET $35.12 258 $9,059.85 $9,088.84 $-123.66
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 11:10am ET $30.31 299 $9,062.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 3:40pm ET $31.18 299 $9,321.33 $9,347.48 +$258.64
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET $31.17 299 $9,319.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET $30.71 299 $9,180.80 $9,208.47 $-139.01
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 11:15am ET $30.38 303 $9,203.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET $30.01 303 $9,091.52 $9,096.36 $-112.11
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $30.45 298 $9,072.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 1:40pm ET $30.12 298 $8,974.27 $8,998.02 $-98.34
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 11:00am ET $29.42 305 $8,973.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:00am ET $32.00 305 $9,759.97 $9,784.89 +$786.87
(+8.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 10:10am ET $32.12 304 $9,764.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:25am ET $31.78 304 $9,661.12 $9,681.53 $-103.36
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 11:10am ET $31.56 306 $9,655.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $31.03 306 $9,495.18 $9,520.88 $-160.65
(-1.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET $32.33 294 $9,504.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $31.84 294 $9,362.28 $9,378.17 $-142.71
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:05am ET $31.05 302 $9,377.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET $31.86 302 $9,620.21 $9,621.31 +$243.14
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:05am ET $32.15 299 $9,612.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:45am ET $31.75 299 $9,491.76 $9,500.22 $-121.09
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:20am ET $29.52 321 $9,475.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:00pm ET $30.38 321 $9,750.38 $9,774.67 +$274.45
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:30am ET $33.54 291 $9,760.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:55am ET $34.38 291 $10,004.61 $10,019.14 +$244.47
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $33.76 296 $9,991.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $33.40 296 $9,884.92 $9,912.58 $-106.56
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET $31.50 314 $9,891.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 11:45am ET $29.92 314 $9,396.10 $9,417.68 $-494.90
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $24.03 391 $9,395.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 10:20am ET $27.67 391 $10,817.02 $10,838.97 +$1,421.29
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,838.97
Net Profit/Loss: +$838.97
Total Return: +8.39%
Back to Surge