SOXL Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-20 to present • 33 trades in period
+304.43%
Last 6 Months Return
$100,621.84
Current Value
55%
Win Rate
$24,880.12
Period Start
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.
Strategy Score PRO Scored Jun 20, 2026
76
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
24.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
12.0/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
77.2/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 76.4
30-Day Momentum
51
+28.9%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 69.2
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,601
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
123 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$24,880.12
Current Value
$100,621.84
Period P&L
$75,741.72
Max Drawdown
-33.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.54
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
18 /
15
Best Trade
+22.00%
Worst Trade
-8.94%
Avg Trade Return
+4.76%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$3,185,507.93
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$75,741.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$75,741.72
Gross Return
+304.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+304.43%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 123 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $24,880.12 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 1:30pm ET | $42.37 | 576 | $24,406.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 2:35pm ET | $43.45 | 576 | $25,027.20 | $25,064.44 |
+$621.16 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 29, 2025 10:45am ET | $43.84 | 571 | $25,029.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2025 12:15pm ET | $43.66 | 571 | $24,929.86 | $24,964.51 |
$-99.93 (-0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $47.90 | 521 | $24,958.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET | $47.25 | 521 | $24,617.25 | $24,623.57 |
$-340.94 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.29 | 499 | $24,595.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.46 | 499 | $26,676.54 | $26,704.40 |
+$2,080.83 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $53.86 | 495 | $26,660.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $52.06 | 495 | $25,767.23 | $25,810.92 |
$-893.48 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $49.81 | 518 | $25,801.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $54.21 | 518 | $28,080.78 | $28,090.12 |
+$2,279.20 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $54.44 | 516 | $28,088.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $53.87 | 516 | $27,796.92 | $27,798.12 |
$-292.00 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $54.58 | 509 | $27,778.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $59.90 | 509 | $30,488.08 | $30,507.53 |
+$2,709.41 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $58.63 | 520 | $30,487.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:00am ET | $64.69 | 520 | $33,638.80 | $33,658.73 |
+$3,151.20 (+10.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $61.45 | 547 | $33,610.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $60.81 | 547 | $33,263.07 | $33,311.39 |
$-347.34 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:15am ET | $65.93 | 505 | $33,292.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $65.24 | 505 | $32,943.68 | $32,962.94 |
$-348.45 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:10am ET | $70.99 | 464 | $32,939.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $68.56 | 464 | $31,809.52 | $31,833.10 |
$-1,129.84 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $69.24 | 459 | $31,781.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:10pm ET | $68.36 | 459 | $31,377.29 | $31,429.23 |
$-403.87 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $64.36 | 488 | $31,407.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $66.00 | 488 | $32,205.95 | $32,227.60 |
+$798.37 (+2.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:35am ET | $60.90 | 529 | $32,216.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $62.88 | 529 | $33,263.52 | $33,275.02 |
+$1,047.42 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $63.28 | 525 | $33,222.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $64.90 | 525 | $34,073.13 | $34,126.15 |
+$851.13 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 10:30am ET | $65.72 | 519 | $34,108.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $64.65 | 519 | $33,553.35 | $33,570.82 |
$-555.33 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.14 | 643 | $33,526.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.06 | 643 | $31,545.58 | $31,590.32 |
$-1,980.50 (-5.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.38 | 580 | $31,540.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $51.07 | 580 | $29,621.76 | $29,671.68 |
$-1,918.64 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.83 | 692 | $29,634.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $49.97 | 692 | $34,582.70 | $34,619.48 |
+$4,947.80 (+16.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.63 | 633 | $34,580.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $66.65 | 633 | $42,188.56 | $42,227.25 |
+$7,607.77 (+22.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.81 | 564 | $42,192.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $86.11 | 564 | $48,565.59 | $48,600.00 |
+$6,372.75 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $98.35 | 494 | $48,582.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $113.27 | 494 | $55,955.38 | $55,972.95 |
+$7,372.95 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.74 | 487 | $55,878.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $132.79 | 487 | $64,668.73 | $64,763.30 |
+$8,790.35 (+15.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $135.62 | 477 | $64,689.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.00 | 477 | $74,412.00 | $74,485.61 |
+$9,722.31 (+15.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.00 | 459 | $74,358.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $186.55 | 459 | $85,626.45 | $85,754.06 |
+$11,268.45 (+15.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.05 | 471 | $85,745.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $165.77 | 471 | $78,077.67 | $78,086.18 |
$-7,667.88 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.08 | 481 | $77,960.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $187.53 | 481 | $90,201.93 | $90,327.63 |
+$12,241.45 (+15.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.90 | 382 | $90,113.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $223.66 | 382 | $85,438.08 | $85,651.91 |
$-4,675.72 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.40 | 356 | $85,582.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $277.78 | 356 | $98,889.68 | $98,959.19 |
+$13,307.28 (+15.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $209.74 | 471 | $98,787.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $197.83 | 471 | $93,177.93 | $93,349.58 |
$-5,609.61 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $194.54 | 479 | $93,184.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET | $225.08 | 479 | $107,811.11 | $107,976.04 |
+$14,626.46 (+15.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.52 | 408 | $107,922.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 11:25am ET | $246.49 | 408 | $100,567.92 | $100,621.84 |
$-7,354.20 (-6.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$100,621.84
Net Profit/Loss:
+$90,621.84
Total Return:
+906.22%