Compendium › Surge › SPY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPY
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 16 trades in period

+2.75%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,407.45
Current Value
63%
Win Rate
$12,075.29
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:17:30

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.3/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
6.4/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 41.5/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 31.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,571
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,075.29
Current Value
$12,407.45
Period P&L
$332.16
Max Drawdown
-6.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
10 / 6
Best Trade
+1.41%
Worst Trade
-1.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$386,142.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$332.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$332.16
Gross Return
+2.75%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.75%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,075.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 11:50am ET $679.70 17 $11,554.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET $672.59 17 $11,434.03 $11,977.54 $-120.79
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 3:40pm ET $670.02 17 $11,390.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 10:10am ET $679.48 17 $11,551.16 $12,138.36 +$160.82
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 1:15pm ET $682.96 17 $11,610.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 1:45pm ET $683.37 17 $11,617.21 $12,145.24 +$6.88
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET $670.91 18 $12,076.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET $669.24 18 $12,046.23 $12,115.09 $-30.15
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET $658.71 18 $11,856.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET $668.01 18 $12,024.18 $12,282.49 +$167.40
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 12:25pm ET $668.19 18 $12,027.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 12:55pm ET $673.31 18 $12,119.58 $12,374.73 +$92.24
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 1:00pm ET $673.55 18 $12,123.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 1:30pm ET $680.32 18 $12,245.76 $12,496.59 +$121.86
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 12:25pm ET $683.56 18 $12,304.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 12:55pm ET $684.31 18 $12,317.49 $12,510.00 +$13.41
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:30pm ET $685.99 18 $12,347.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 3:00pm ET $689.05 18 $12,402.81 $12,565.00 +$55.00
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 3:05pm ET $688.88 18 $12,399.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $681.72 18 $12,270.96 $12,436.12 $-128.88
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 12:30pm ET $694.43 17 $11,805.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 1:00pm ET $694.94 17 $11,813.90 $12,444.70 +$8.58
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET $685.08 18 $12,331.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 11:20am ET $689.82 18 $12,416.76 $12,530.02 +$85.32
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:00pm ET $696.29 17 $11,836.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $689.12 17 $11,715.04 $12,408.13 $-121.89
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET $688.68 18 $12,396.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $694.72 18 $12,504.96 $12,516.85 +$108.72
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:05pm ET $694.87 18 $12,507.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:35pm ET $693.70 18 $12,486.64 $12,495.83 $-21.02
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET $685.96 18 $12,347.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $681.05 18 $12,258.90 $12,407.45 $-88.38
(-0.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,407.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,407.45
Total Return: +24.07%
Back to Surge