Compendium › Surge › TMO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TMO
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 23 trades in period

-4.74%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,782.81
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$12,369.47
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:48:41

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
10.6/25
Win Rate
2.5/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality 26.6/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 25.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
125 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,369.47
Current Value
$11,782.81
Period P&L
$-586.66
Max Drawdown
-9.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
10 / 13
Best Trade
+3.02%
Worst Trade
-5.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$553,266.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-586.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-586.66
Gross Return
-4.74%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.74%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 125 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,369.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 11:45am ET $565.44 21 $11,874.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 12:15pm ET $562.31 21 $11,808.51 $12,258.17 $-65.73
(-0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 11:15am ET $573.06 21 $12,034.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 1:30pm ET $566.66 21 $11,899.86 $12,123.77 $-134.40
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 11:45am ET $582.82 20 $11,656.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 12:15pm ET $586.56 20 $11,731.20 $12,198.57 +$74.80
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 10:10am ET $595.27 20 $11,905.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 2:35pm ET $588.81 20 $11,776.10 $12,069.27 $-129.30
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 11:45am ET $582.78 20 $11,655.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:10am ET $575.69 20 $11,513.80 $11,927.47 $-141.80
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 12:35pm ET $570.57 20 $11,411.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 1:05pm ET $571.68 20 $11,433.60 $11,949.77 +$22.30
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:35am ET $578.67 20 $11,573.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 12:05pm ET $582.96 20 $11,659.20 $12,035.56 +$85.79
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 10:25am ET $595.86 20 $11,917.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 10:40am ET $589.60 20 $11,792.00 $11,910.46 $-125.10
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:15pm ET $571.96 20 $11,439.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 2:45pm ET $577.11 20 $11,542.10 $12,013.44 +$102.98
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 10:20am ET $566.17 21 $11,889.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 10:50am ET $574.23 21 $12,058.83 $12,182.70 +$169.26
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 10:55am ET $572.95 21 $12,031.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 11:25am ET $578.04 21 $12,138.74 $12,289.48 +$106.78
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 11:45am ET $579.19 21 $12,162.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 12:15pm ET $576.85 21 $12,113.75 $12,240.23 $-49.25
(-0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 3:40pm ET $609.11 20 $12,182.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:00am ET $627.48 20 $12,549.50 $12,607.53 +$367.30
(+3.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:15am ET $626.99 20 $12,539.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:30am ET $620.26 20 $12,405.20 $12,472.93 $-134.60
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 1:10pm ET $617.12 20 $12,342.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET $610.75 20 $12,215.00 $12,345.63 $-127.30
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $622.31 19 $11,823.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:05am ET $627.88 19 $11,929.72 $12,451.56 +$105.93
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:20am ET $615.57 20 $12,311.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET $629.66 20 $12,593.20 $12,733.36 +$281.80
(+2.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:00am ET $629.98 20 $12,599.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 11:30am ET $639.58 20 $12,791.60 $12,925.36 +$192.00
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 3:10pm ET $633.39 20 $12,667.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $626.81 20 $12,536.20 $12,793.76 $-131.60
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET $594.55 21 $12,485.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 1:10pm ET $588.54 21 $12,359.34 $12,667.55 $-126.21
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:05pm ET $583.06 21 $12,244.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:25pm ET $575.22 21 $12,079.62 $12,502.91 $-164.64
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:45pm ET $546.01 22 $12,012.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:15pm ET $541.09 22 $11,903.87 $12,394.56 $-108.35
(-0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $485.74 25 $12,143.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:35am ET $461.27 25 $11,531.75 $11,782.81 $-611.75
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
31.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,782.81
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,782.81
Total Return: +17.83%
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