Compendium › Surge › TSLA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TSLA
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 28 trades in period

-13.27%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,686.79
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$14,627.19
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:31

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.5/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 23.0/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 21.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,633
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,627.19
Current Value
$12,686.79
Period P&L
$-1,940.40
Max Drawdown
-17.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.26

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
8 / 20
Best Trade
+3.20%
Worst Trade
-5.10%
Avg Trade Return
-0.47%
Avg Hold Time
22.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$760,570.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,940.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,940.40
Gross Return
-13.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.27%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $14,627.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 1:15pm ET $457.06 31 $14,168.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:10am ET $451.76 31 $14,004.56 $14,327.73 $-164.30
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 10:25am ET $444.80 32 $14,233.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 10:00am ET $437.86 32 $14,011.59 $14,105.72 $-222.01
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET $401.76 35 $14,061.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET $414.62 35 $14,511.70 $14,556.00 +$450.28
(+3.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 11:25am ET $418.75 34 $14,237.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 12:50pm ET $414.50 34 $14,092.83 $14,411.33 $-144.67
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET $410.55 35 $14,369.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 10:50am ET $405.62 35 $14,196.70 $14,238.95 $-172.38
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 10:25am ET $427.81 33 $14,117.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:00am ET $421.75 33 $13,917.75 $14,039.03 $-199.92
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:05am ET $413.88 33 $13,658.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET $408.74 33 $13,488.34 $13,869.33 $-169.70
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 12:00pm ET $416.72 33 $13,751.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET $421.03 33 $13,893.99 $14,011.73 +$142.40
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 10:05am ET $435.37 32 $13,931.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 10:25am ET $429.81 32 $13,753.92 $13,833.81 $-177.92
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 10:00am ET $441.40 31 $13,683.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 10:30am ET $450.55 31 $13,967.05 $14,117.46 +$283.65
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 10:35am ET $446.05 31 $13,827.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 11:05am ET $445.24 31 $13,802.39 $14,092.30 $-25.16
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:55pm ET $451.92 31 $14,009.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET $442.61 31 $13,720.91 $13,803.69 $-288.61
(-2.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 12:10pm ET $480.48 28 $13,453.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 11:10am ET $475.17 28 $13,304.76 $13,655.01 $-148.68
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 10:30am ET $484.71 28 $13,571.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 10:40am ET $478.85 28 $13,407.80 $13,491.07 $-163.94
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:30am ET $456.26 29 $13,231.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $451.69 29 $13,099.01 $13,358.47 $-132.60
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:10am ET $433.27 30 $12,998.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:40am ET $441.48 30 $13,244.40 $13,604.77 +$246.30
(+1.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:45am ET $441.25 30 $13,237.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 11:15am ET $448.39 30 $13,451.55 $13,818.82 +$214.05
(+1.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 12:00pm ET $452.30 30 $13,569.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:20am ET $447.18 30 $13,415.40 $13,665.15 $-153.67
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET $425.79 32 $13,625.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $421.40 32 $13,484.80 $13,524.83 $-140.32
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 10:50am ET $437.61 30 $13,128.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 3:50pm ET $449.01 30 $13,470.30 $13,866.83 +$342.00
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:55am ET $452.03 30 $13,560.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $447.42 30 $13,422.45 $13,728.38 $-138.45
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:20am ET $432.39 31 $13,404.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:00am ET $419.60 31 $13,007.60 $13,331.89 $-396.49
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:25pm ET $423.33 31 $13,123.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:40pm ET $418.36 31 $12,969.16 $13,177.93 $-153.96
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:25am ET $410.10 32 $13,123.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:55am ET $417.93 32 $13,373.76 $13,428.36 +$250.43
(+1.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:00am ET $417.87 32 $13,371.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:30am ET $421.89 32 $13,500.34 $13,556.88 +$128.52
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:15pm ET $426.88 31 $13,233.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:15am ET $422.56 31 $13,099.36 $13,423.11 $-133.77
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:35am ET $419.01 32 $13,408.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $416.88 32 $13,340.16 $13,354.95 $-68.16
(-0.5%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $363.84 36 $13,098.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $345.28 36 $12,430.08 $12,686.79 $-668.16
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,686.79
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,686.79
Total Return: +26.87%
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