USO Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 35 trades in period
+43.88%
Last 6 Months Return
$10,814.25
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$7,516.21
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
15
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.8/35
Total Return
8.0/25
Win Rate
1.8/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
15.0/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 14.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,082
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
136 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$7,516.21
Current Value
$10,814.25
Period P&L
$3,298.04
Max Drawdown
-35.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
35
Winners / Losers
16 /
19
Best Trade
+19.01%
Worst Trade
-6.05%
Avg Trade Return
+1.18%
Avg Hold Time
2d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$538,020.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,298.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,298.04
Gross Return
+43.88%
Net Return (after fees)
+43.88%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 136 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 35 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,516.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 3:35pm ET | $71.10 | 105 | $7,465.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 10:05am ET | $71.03 | 105 | $7,458.15 | $7,509.08 |
$-7.13 (-0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 10:50am ET | $71.78 | 104 | $7,465.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 11:20am ET | $71.55 | 104 | $7,441.20 | $7,485.16 |
$-23.92 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 18, 2025 11:20am ET | $71.68 | 104 | $7,454.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET | $70.46 | 104 | $7,327.84 | $7,358.80 |
$-126.36 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:30am ET | $70.75 | 104 | $7,358.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:00am ET | $71.51 | 104 | $7,437.04 | $7,437.84 |
+$79.04 (+1.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 2:20pm ET | $69.49 | 107 | $7,435.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 24, 2025 2:50pm ET | $70.35 | 107 | $7,526.92 | $7,529.33 |
+$91.49 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 2:55pm ET | $70.29 | 107 | $7,520.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET | $68.39 | 107 | $7,317.73 | $7,326.56 |
$-202.77 (-2.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 2:20pm ET | $69.23 | 105 | $7,269.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 2:50pm ET | $70.03 | 105 | $7,353.15 | $7,410.56 |
+$84.00 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 26, 2025 2:55pm ET | $70.07 | 105 | $7,356.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 12:20pm ET | $70.93 | 105 | $7,447.65 | $7,501.39 |
+$90.83 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 10:25am ET | $70.86 | 105 | $7,440.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 2:30pm ET | $70.09 | 105 | $7,359.45 | $7,420.54 |
$-80.85 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 3, 2025 10:50am ET | $71.16 | 104 | $7,400.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 2:30pm ET | $70.41 | 104 | $7,322.64 | $7,342.54 |
$-78.00 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $70.93 | 103 | $7,305.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 11:05am ET | $72.16 | 103 | $7,432.48 | $7,469.23 |
+$126.69 (+1.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 12:40pm ET | $72.09 | 103 | $7,425.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 10:00am ET | $71.00 | 103 | $7,313.00 | $7,356.96 |
$-112.27 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 1:15pm ET | $69.75 | 105 | $7,323.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET | $68.82 | 105 | $7,226.10 | $7,259.31 |
$-97.65 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 2:15pm ET | $69.00 | 105 | $7,245.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 2:45pm ET | $68.79 | 105 | $7,222.95 | $7,237.26 |
$-22.05 (-0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:25am ET | $67.53 | 107 | $7,225.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 10:55am ET | $67.61 | 107 | $7,234.27 | $7,245.82 |
+$8.56 (+0.1%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 12:10pm ET | $69.98 | 103 | $7,207.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 12:40pm ET | $70.22 | 103 | $7,232.66 | $7,270.54 |
+$24.72 (+0.3%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $68.76 | 105 | $7,220.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $70.16 | 105 | $7,366.80 | $7,417.13 |
+$146.59 (+2.0%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:30pm ET | $70.29 | 105 | $7,379.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $69.58 | 105 | $7,305.90 | $7,343.11 |
$-74.02 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 1:20pm ET | $69.17 | 106 | $7,332.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $71.20 | 106 | $7,547.20 | $7,558.29 |
+$215.18 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $71.69 | 105 | $7,527.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $70.94 | 105 | $7,448.70 | $7,479.54 |
$-78.75 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $71.20 | 105 | $7,475.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $73.46 | 105 | $7,713.30 | $7,717.37 |
+$237.83 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $74.61 | 103 | $7,684.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:00pm ET | $73.22 | 103 | $7,541.66 | $7,574.20 |
$-143.17 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 1:30pm ET | $73.40 | 103 | $7,560.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $72.16 | 103 | $7,432.01 | $7,446.01 |
$-128.19 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $74.47 | 99 | $7,372.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $76.44 | 99 | $7,567.56 | $7,641.04 |
+$195.03 (+2.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 3:40pm ET | $76.73 | 99 | $7,596.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $79.72 | 99 | $7,892.28 | $7,937.18 |
+$296.14 (+3.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $76.77 | 103 | $7,907.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 2:05pm ET | $75.90 | 103 | $7,817.70 | $7,847.57 |
$-89.61 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $78.27 | 100 | $7,827.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $76.81 | 100 | $7,681.00 | $7,701.57 |
$-146.00 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $77.40 | 99 | $7,662.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $77.85 | 99 | $7,707.15 | $7,746.12 |
+$44.55 (+0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $78.19 | 99 | $7,741.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $77.65 | 99 | $7,687.35 | $7,692.17 |
$-53.95 (-0.7%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $76.51 | 100 | $7,651.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $76.11 | 100 | $7,611.00 | $7,652.17 |
$-40.00 (-0.5%) |
📅 Sim Ended
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $94.44 | 81 | $7,649.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $108.66 | 81 | $8,801.46 | $8,803.99 |
+$1,151.82 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $115.07 | 76 | $8,745.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $108.11 | 76 | $8,216.35 | $8,275.17 |
$-528.82 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $116.71 | 70 | $8,169.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.90 | 70 | $9,723.00 | $9,828.47 |
+$1,553.30 (+19.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $133.26 | 73 | $9,728.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $126.26 | 73 | $9,216.98 | $9,317.38 |
$-511.09 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.89 | 77 | $9,231.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.33 | 77 | $10,728.40 | $10,814.25 |
+$1,496.87 (+16.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,814.25
Net Profit/Loss:
+$814.25
Total Return:
+8.14%