Compendium › Surge › VTI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VTI
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 18 trades in period

+3.09%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,458.50
Current Value
61%
Win Rate
$12,084.67
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:18:20

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.2/35
Total Return
11.7/25
Win Rate
6.9/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 42.5/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 31.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,324
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,084.67
Current Value
$12,458.50
Period P&L
$373.83
Max Drawdown
-6.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
11 / 7
Best Trade
+1.72%
Worst Trade
-1.07%
Avg Trade Return
+0.17%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$442,423.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$373.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$373.83
Gross Return
+3.09%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,084.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 11:50am ET $334.09 36 $12,027.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET $330.68 36 $11,904.30 $11,984.77 $-122.94
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 2:50pm ET $329.45 36 $11,860.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 3:20pm ET $335.11 36 $12,063.96 $12,188.53 +$203.76
(+1.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 3:35pm ET $335.29 36 $12,070.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 10:05am ET $336.55 36 $12,115.80 $12,234.07 +$45.54
(+0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:40am ET $329.59 37 $12,194.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:10am ET $328.20 37 $12,143.24 $12,182.34 $-51.73
(-0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET $323.50 37 $11,969.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET $328.22 37 $12,144.14 $12,356.98 +$174.64
(+1.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 12:25pm ET $328.27 37 $12,145.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 12:55pm ET $331.27 37 $12,256.99 $12,467.98 +$111.00
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 1:00pm ET $331.38 37 $12,260.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 1:30pm ET $334.80 37 $12,387.60 $12,594.70 +$126.72
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 2:20pm ET $335.29 37 $12,405.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 11:45am ET $335.67 37 $12,419.88 $12,608.85 +$14.15
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET $336.38 37 $12,446.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 12:50pm ET $337.10 37 $12,472.70 $12,635.49 +$26.64
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET $337.66 37 $12,493.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 2:35pm ET $339.70 37 $12,568.90 $12,710.97 +$75.48
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 2:40pm ET $339.86 37 $12,574.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $336.22 37 $12,440.14 $12,576.29 $-134.68
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:55pm ET $340.93 36 $12,273.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:25pm ET $340.94 36 $12,273.66 $12,576.63 +$0.34
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 2:50pm ET $342.85 36 $12,342.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 3:20pm ET $343.01 36 $12,348.18 $12,582.21 +$5.58
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:50am ET $338.97 37 $12,541.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $335.57 37 $12,416.09 $12,456.41 $-125.80
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:35am ET $342.74 36 $12,338.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET $341.22 36 $12,283.92 $12,401.70 $-54.71
(-0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 12:05pm ET $339.78 36 $12,232.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:35pm ET $343.14 36 $12,352.86 $12,522.48 +$120.78
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $343.07 36 $12,350.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:10pm ET $343.04 36 $12,349.26 $12,521.40 $-1.08
(-0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:35am ET $338.07 37 $12,508.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $336.37 37 $12,445.69 $12,458.50 $-62.90
(-0.5%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,458.50
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,458.50
Total Return: +24.59%
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