VXX Surge's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 32 trades in period
-5.05%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,853.16
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$12,483.90
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
18
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.5/35
Total Return
10.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality
19.8/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 17.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,652
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,483.90
Current Value
$11,853.16
Period P&L
$-630.74
Max Drawdown
-18.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
9 /
23
Best Trade
+15.36%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
18.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$778,710.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-630.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$-630.74
Gross Return
-5.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.05%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,483.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET | $34.83 | 358 | $12,467.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:20am ET | $34.31 | 358 | $12,282.98 | $12,299.53 |
$-184.37 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 12:00pm ET | $36.96 | 332 | $12,270.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 12:20pm ET | $36.35 | 332 | $12,068.20 | $12,097.01 |
$-202.52 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 12, 2025 10:55am ET | $33.10 | 365 | $12,081.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 2:05pm ET | $32.71 | 365 | $11,939.15 | $11,954.66 |
$-142.35 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 10:45am ET | $33.84 | 353 | $11,943.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:25pm ET | $34.83 | 353 | $12,294.99 | $12,305.89 |
+$351.23 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 12:55pm ET | $35.43 | 347 | $12,294.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 2:45pm ET | $36.45 | 347 | $12,648.15 | $12,659.83 |
+$353.94 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 12:35pm ET | $37.95 | 333 | $12,637.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 12:40pm ET | $37.54 | 333 | $12,500.82 | $12,523.30 |
$-136.53 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 10:50am ET | $34.70 | 360 | $12,490.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 11:15am ET | $35.80 | 360 | $12,888.00 | $12,921.10 |
+$397.80 (+3.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 11:30am ET | $31.11 | 415 | $12,910.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 12:50pm ET | $30.72 | 415 | $12,748.05 | $12,758.50 |
$-162.60 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 11:00am ET | $31.02 | 411 | $12,747.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 11:30am ET | $30.83 | 411 | $12,669.08 | $12,680.41 |
$-78.09 (-0.6%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $29.56 | 429 | $12,679.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 11:00am ET | $30.42 | 429 | $13,050.18 | $13,051.50 |
+$371.09 (+2.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 10:00am ET | $29.68 | 439 | $13,029.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 10:30am ET | $29.79 | 439 | $13,077.81 | $13,099.79 |
+$48.29 (+0.4%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:50am ET | $29.73 | 440 | $13,081.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 10:00am ET | $29.13 | 440 | $12,817.20 | $12,835.79 |
$-264.00 (-2.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:20pm ET | $26.61 | 482 | $12,826.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $26.01 | 482 | $12,536.82 | $12,546.59 |
$-289.20 (-2.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $26.49 | 473 | $12,529.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 11:25am ET | $26.22 | 473 | $12,402.06 | $12,418.88 |
$-127.71 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $26.27 | 472 | $12,398.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:40pm ET | $26.00 | 472 | $12,269.64 | $12,289.69 |
$-129.19 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $26.50 | 463 | $12,269.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $26.22 | 463 | $12,139.86 | $12,160.05 |
$-129.64 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $26.15 | 464 | $12,135.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $27.70 | 464 | $12,852.80 | $12,877.63 |
+$717.58 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $27.83 | 462 | $12,858.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $27.36 | 462 | $12,640.32 | $12,659.94 |
$-217.69 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:40pm ET | $26.42 | 479 | $12,655.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $26.13 | 479 | $12,513.88 | $12,518.63 |
$-141.31 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $29.08 | 430 | $12,504.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:00am ET | $27.72 | 430 | $11,919.60 | $11,933.79 |
$-584.84 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $26.53 | 449 | $11,911.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $26.23 | 449 | $11,776.96 | $11,799.67 |
$-134.12 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:55pm ET | $26.70 | 441 | $11,774.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 1:25pm ET | $27.02 | 441 | $11,915.82 | $11,940.79 |
+$141.12 (+1.2%) |
END_OF_DAY
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $28.57 | 418 | $11,940.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $28.13 | 418 | $11,758.34 | $11,758.96 |
$-181.83 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:00pm ET | $27.64 | 425 | $11,747.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $27.36 | 425 | $11,627.96 | $11,639.92 |
$-119.04 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $26.93 | 432 | $11,633.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $26.64 | 432 | $11,508.48 | $11,514.64 |
$-125.28 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $29.57 | 389 | $11,502.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $29.13 | 389 | $11,331.57 | $11,343.48 |
$-171.16 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $27.08 | 418 | $11,319.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 12:20pm ET | $26.80 | 418 | $11,202.40 | $11,226.44 |
$-117.04 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:05pm ET | $27.06 | 414 | $11,202.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:15pm ET | $26.77 | 414 | $11,082.78 | $11,106.38 |
$-120.06 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET | $27.19 | 408 | $11,093.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $28.05 | 408 | $11,442.85 | $11,455.71 |
+$349.33 (+3.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.88 | 338 | $11,451.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:40pm ET | $32.03 | 338 | $10,824.45 | $10,828.72 |
$-626.99 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $32.92 | 328 | $10,799.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $37.98 | 328 | $12,457.44 | $12,487.09 |
+$1,658.37 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.83 | 339 | $12,485.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $34.96 | 339 | $11,851.44 | $11,853.16 |
$-633.93 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,853.16
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,853.16
Total Return:
+18.53%