Compendium › Surge › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 21 trades in period

+1.70%
Last 6 Months Return
$8,630.79
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$8,486.71
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:51:14

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 8.4/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 6.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,504
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
136 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,486.71
Current Value
$8,630.79
Period P&L
$144.09
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
10 / 11
Best Trade
+2.75%
Worst Trade
-1.95%
Avg Trade Return
+0.06%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$361,472.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$144.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$144.09
Gross Return
+1.70%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 136 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,486.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 11:45am ET $44.11 193 $8,512.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 12:15pm ET $44.14 193 $8,519.50 $8,547.98 +$6.75
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 2:50pm ET $45.21 189 $8,544.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 3:20pm ET $45.86 189 $8,667.54 $8,671.30 +$123.32
(+1.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:50am ET $45.66 189 $8,629.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:20am ET $45.68 189 $8,633.52 $8,675.08 +$3.78
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 12:55pm ET $45.48 190 $8,640.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 10:00am ET $44.59 190 $8,472.10 $8,506.93 $-168.15
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 12:40pm ET $44.93 189 $8,491.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 1:10pm ET $45.00 189 $8,505.00 $8,520.16 +$13.23
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:40am ET $44.67 190 $8,487.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 12:10pm ET $44.42 190 $8,439.80 $8,472.66 $-47.50
(-0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 11:40am ET $44.83 188 $8,428.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 12:10pm ET $45.37 188 $8,528.62 $8,573.24 +$100.58
(+1.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 10:50am ET $45.77 187 $8,558.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 11:20am ET $46.05 187 $8,611.35 $8,626.07 +$52.83
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 10:45am ET $46.59 185 $8,619.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 3:40pm ET $46.11 185 $8,529.43 $8,536.34 $-89.73
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:30pm ET $46.11 185 $8,529.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 3:00pm ET $45.98 185 $8,506.54 $8,513.46 $-22.88
(-0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 17, 2025 1:55pm ET $44.46 191 $8,491.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 2:25pm ET $44.09 191 $8,420.24 $8,441.83 $-71.63
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:15am ET $44.92 187 $8,399.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:15am ET $46.13 187 $8,626.31 $8,669.04 +$227.21
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 11:40am ET $45.86 189 $8,666.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $46.71 189 $8,828.19 $8,830.50 +$161.46
(+1.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 11:30am ET $48.20 183 $8,819.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET $47.67 183 $8,722.71 $8,733.53 $-96.97
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:55am ET $47.91 182 $8,718.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 11:25am ET $47.78 182 $8,695.05 $8,709.87 $-23.66
(-0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 2:40pm ET $50.77 171 $8,681.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:00am ET $50.06 171 $8,560.26 $8,588.46 $-121.41
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:30am ET $50.90 168 $8,551.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $52.31 168 $8,787.24 $8,823.81 +$235.35
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $52.83 167 $8,822.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET $52.25 167 $8,725.75 $8,727.25 $-96.56
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET $53.38 163 $8,700.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET $53.40 163 $8,703.39 $8,730.51 +$3.26
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $53.68 162 $8,696.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 2:45pm ET $53.64 162 $8,689.66 $8,724.01 $-6.50
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 11:30am ET $55.08 158 $8,701.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:45am ET $54.49 158 $8,608.63 $8,630.79 $-93.22
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,630.79
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,369.21
Total Return: -13.69%
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