Compendium › Surge › XLF
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLF
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 18 trades in period

-0.59%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,099.94
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,154.22
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:18:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.4 neutral
20d Trend
-1.7%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
1.2%
Range Pos
44%
Bounce Ratio
1.3×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.5/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 6.1/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,625
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,154.22
Current Value
$9,099.94
Period P&L
$-54.27
Max Drawdown
-14.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
8 / 10
Best Trade
+1.99%
Worst Trade
-1.14%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$337,233.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-54.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$-54.27
Gross Return
-0.59%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.59%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLF Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,154.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 12:25pm ET $52.76 173 $9,126.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 11:20am ET $52.20 173 $9,029.74 $9,073.77 $-96.88
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 2:35pm ET $52.67 172 $9,058.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 3:05pm ET $53.10 172 $9,132.34 $9,147.73 +$73.96
(+0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 1:00pm ET $53.30 171 $9,113.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 1:30pm ET $53.77 171 $9,193.82 $9,228.10 +$80.37
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:50am ET $51.75 178 $9,210.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 12:20pm ET $51.68 178 $9,198.15 $9,215.64 $-12.46
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 3:30pm ET $51.97 177 $9,197.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 10:00am ET $52.82 177 $9,348.26 $9,366.09 +$150.45
(+1.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 12:30pm ET $53.10 176 $9,344.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $53.33 176 $9,386.08 $9,407.45 +$41.36
(+0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 12:35pm ET $53.44 176 $9,405.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 1:05pm ET $53.69 176 $9,449.44 $9,451.45 +$44.00
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 11:15am ET $53.64 176 $9,440.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 11:45am ET $54.71 176 $9,628.08 $9,638.89 +$187.44
(+2.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 12:50pm ET $54.76 176 $9,636.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 1:20pm ET $54.94 176 $9,669.44 $9,671.45 +$32.56
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 11:10am ET $55.32 174 $9,624.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 11:40am ET $55.41 174 $9,640.47 $9,687.11 +$15.66
(+0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 12:05pm ET $55.82 173 $9,656.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 3:30pm ET $55.57 173 $9,612.75 $9,643.86 $-43.25
(-0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:25am ET $56.30 171 $9,627.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:55am ET $56.20 171 $9,609.35 $9,625.91 $-17.95
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 12:15pm ET $56.35 170 $9,578.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $55.73 170 $9,474.10 $9,521.36 $-104.55
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 12:30pm ET $56.24 169 $9,504.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 1:00pm ET $55.84 169 $9,436.12 $9,452.91 $-68.45
(-0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET $54.10 174 $9,412.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $53.52 174 $9,312.62 $9,353.00 $-99.91
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 12:10pm ET $54.00 173 $9,342.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:35pm ET $53.43 173 $9,243.39 $9,254.39 $-98.61
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $53.99 171 $9,232.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET $53.38 171 $9,127.13 $9,149.22 $-105.17
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:10pm ET $51.93 176 $9,139.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $51.65 176 $9,090.40 $9,099.94 $-49.28
(-0.5%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,099.94
Net Profit/Loss: $-900.06
Total Return: -9.00%
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