Compendium › Surge › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 25 trades in period

+14.85%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,100.14
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$12,276.55
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:18:16

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 31.6/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 23.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,501
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,276.55
Current Value
$14,100.14
Period P&L
$1,823.60
Max Drawdown
-14.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
14 / 11
Best Trade
+15.08%
Worst Trade
-2.18%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$617,693.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,823.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,823.60
Gross Return
+14.85%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $12,276.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 5, 2025 12:35pm ET $148.22 83 $12,301.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:00am ET $145.46 83 $12,072.77 $12,110.96 $-229.08
(-1.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 3:55pm ET $144.08 84 $12,102.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 2:50pm ET $147.74 84 $12,410.16 $12,418.40 +$307.44
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 3:45pm ET $148.01 83 $12,284.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 10:05am ET $146.49 83 $12,158.67 $12,292.24 $-126.16
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 10:35am ET $143.82 85 $12,224.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 11:05am ET $142.60 85 $12,121.00 $12,188.96 $-103.28
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 12:30pm ET $137.18 88 $12,071.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 24, 2025 1:00pm ET $140.18 88 $12,335.84 $12,452.96 +$264.00
(+2.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 1:05pm ET $140.21 88 $12,338.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 10:00am ET $137.18 88 $12,071.84 $12,186.32 $-266.64
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 25, 2025 12:05pm ET $139.27 87 $12,116.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 26, 2025 12:35pm ET $142.26 87 $12,376.62 $12,446.89 +$260.57
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 12:40pm ET $142.40 87 $12,388.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 1, 2025 10:05am ET $142.47 87 $12,394.46 $12,452.54 +$5.65
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 11:40am ET $143.03 87 $12,443.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 2, 2025 12:10pm ET $144.61 87 $12,580.64 $12,590.01 +$137.47
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 10:30am ET $144.45 87 $12,567.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 11:00am ET $144.85 87 $12,601.52 $12,624.38 +$34.37
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 11:55am ET $145.74 86 $12,533.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 12:25pm ET $146.22 86 $12,574.92 $12,666.09 +$41.71
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Dec 10, 2025 2:05pm ET $148.28 85 $12,603.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 10:00am ET $145.70 85 $12,384.50 $12,447.21 $-218.88
(-1.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 1:35pm ET $147.61 84 $12,399.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 10:00am ET $145.89 84 $12,254.76 $12,302.73 $-144.48
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 2:25pm ET $145.72 84 $12,240.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 26, 2025 11:50am ET $146.73 84 $12,325.32 $12,387.57 +$84.84
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $146.61 84 $12,315.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $147.03 84 $12,350.10 $12,422.43 +$34.86
(+0.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 11:05am ET $145.76 85 $12,389.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET $146.53 85 $12,455.05 $12,488.31 +$65.88
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $146.95 84 $12,343.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 1:20pm ET $146.37 84 $12,295.08 $12,440.01 $-48.30
(-0.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET $144.01 86 $12,384.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 12:00pm ET $142.52 86 $12,256.72 $12,311.87 $-128.14
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:20am ET $145.32 84 $12,206.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:50am ET $146.33 84 $12,291.72 $12,396.71 +$84.84
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 11:15am ET $148.53 83 $12,327.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 11:45am ET $148.75 83 $12,346.25 $12,414.97 +$18.26
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
21 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET $145.82 85 $12,394.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $142.64 85 $12,124.40 $12,144.67 $-270.30
(-2.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
22 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:30am ET $140.49 86 $12,082.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $143.60 86 $12,349.60 $12,411.70 +$267.03
(+2.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
23 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $143.68 86 $12,356.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $143.57 86 $12,346.59 $12,401.81 $-9.89
(-0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
24 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:20pm ET $140.69 88 $12,380.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $139.14 88 $12,244.32 $12,265.41 $-136.40
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 85 $12,169.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:10am ET $164.75 85 $14,003.75 $14,100.14 +$1,834.73
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
27d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,100.14
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,100.14
Total Return: +41.00%
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