Compendium › Surge › AAPL
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AAPL
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 8 trades in period

+2.50%
Year to Date Return
$9,030.66
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$8,810.38
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:59:45

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
69.1 neutral
20d Trend
+5.2%
5d Trend
+6.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.1%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
69%
Bounce Ratio
8.0×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 7.3/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 5.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,300
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$8,810.38
Current Value
$9,030.66
Period P&L
$220.28
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+2.55%
Worst Trade
-1.66%
Avg Trade Return
+0.33%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$139,641.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$220.28
Net P&L (after fees)
$220.28
Gross Return
+2.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AAPL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $8,810.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 3:30pm ET $258.58 34 $8,791.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 10:00am ET $258.61 34 $8,792.74 $8,811.40 +$1.02
(+0.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 2:55pm ET $261.13 33 $8,617.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 3:25pm ET $259.02 33 $8,547.66 $8,741.77 $-69.63
(-0.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET $249.87 34 $8,495.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $247.30 34 $8,408.20 $8,654.39 $-87.38
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:35am ET $248.14 34 $8,436.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET $254.46 34 $8,651.64 $8,869.27 +$214.88
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:30am ET $254.70 34 $8,659.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 11:00am ET $260.80 34 $8,867.20 $9,076.67 +$207.40
(+2.4%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:10am ET $258.28 35 $9,039.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:25am ET $254.00 35 $8,890.00 $8,926.87 $-149.80
(-1.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:25am ET $265.04 33 $8,746.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:55am ET $271.07 33 $8,945.31 $9,125.86 +$198.99
(+2.3%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:30am ET $278.85 32 $8,923.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 3:15pm ET $275.88 32 $8,828.00 $9,030.66 $-95.20
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,030.66
Net Profit/Loss: $-969.34
Total Return: -9.69%
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