Compendium › Surge › ADBE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ADBE
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 9 trades in period

-6.84%
Year to Date Return
$5,927.17
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$6,362.24
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:17:26

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality 3.0/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,228
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$6,362.24
Current Value
$5,927.17
Period P&L
$-435.07
Max Drawdown
-41.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.30

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
3 / 6
Best Trade
+2.68%
Worst Trade
-6.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.76%
Avg Hold Time
11.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$110,010.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-435.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-435.07
Gross Return
-6.84%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $6,362.24 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 12:05pm ET $333.64 19 $6,339.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 12:35pm ET $335.52 19 $6,374.88 $6,397.96 +$35.72
(+0.6%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $342.08 18 $6,157.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 3:40pm ET $338.48 18 $6,092.64 $6,333.25 $-64.71
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET $342.79 18 $6,170.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 3:45pm ET $339.06 18 $6,103.08 $6,266.20 $-67.05
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $329.31 19 $6,256.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $319.32 19 $6,067.08 $6,076.48 $-189.72
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:50pm ET $294.15 20 $5,883.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:40am ET $301.72 20 $6,034.40 $6,227.88 +$151.40
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET $294.89 21 $6,192.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET $291.79 21 $6,127.49 $6,162.68 $-65.20
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $272.06 22 $5,985.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:55am ET $279.35 22 $6,145.72 $6,323.08 +$160.40
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 11:55am ET $264.42 23 $6,081.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $263.52 23 $6,060.85 $6,302.27 $-20.81
(-0.3%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $246.26 25 $6,156.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET $231.26 25 $5,781.40 $5,927.17 $-375.10
(-6.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,927.17
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,072.83
Total Return: -40.73%
Back to Surge