Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:49:41

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 6.9/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 5.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,289
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,928.11
Current Value
$9,724.08
Period P&L
$-204.03
Max Drawdown
-17.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
4 / 7
Best Trade
+2.60%
Worst Trade
-1.85%
Avg Trade Return
-0.18%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$213,628.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-204.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-204.03
Gross Return
-2.06%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.06%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,928.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $371.55 26 $9,660.30
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $381.22 26 $9,911.76 $10,179.57 +$251.46
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:05am ET $381.50 26 $9,918.87
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:35am ET $377.99 26 $9,827.74 $10,088.44 $-91.13
(-0.9%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:45am ET $382.81 26 $9,953.06
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $378.39 26 $9,838.14 $9,973.52 $-114.92
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:40am ET $380.78 26 $9,900.28
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:10am ET $379.58 26 $9,869.08 $9,942.32 $-31.20
(-0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 11:05am ET $364.85 27 $9,850.82
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $358.11 27 $9,668.97 $9,760.47 $-181.85
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:20am ET $358.78 27 $9,687.06
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:50am ET $366.34 27 $9,891.18 $9,964.59 +$204.12
(+2.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $369.28 26 $9,601.28
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET $362.44 26 $9,423.44 $9,786.75 $-177.84
(-1.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET $354.64 27 $9,575.15
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $350.33 27 $9,458.91 $9,670.51 $-116.24
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $356.46 27 $9,624.42
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $360.91 27 $9,744.64 $9,790.73 +$120.22
(+1.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $360.91 27 $9,744.48
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET $357.23 27 $9,645.08 $9,691.32 $-99.41
(-1.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:30pm ET $361.56 26 $9,400.56
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:00pm ET $362.82 26 $9,433.32 $9,724.08 +$32.76
(+0.3%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,724.08
Net Profit/Loss: $-275.92
Total Return: -2.76%
Back to Surge