Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:23:41

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.5/35
Total Return
11.8/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.6/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 27.7/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 20.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,840
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,602.17
Current Value
$12,507.34
Period P&L
$-1,094.83
Max Drawdown
-13.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
11
Winners / Losers
3 / 8
Best Trade
+2.58%
Worst Trade
-5.13%
Avg Trade Return
-0.75%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$289,010.46
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,094.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,094.83
Gross Return
-8.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 11 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $13,602.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $299.99 45 $13,499.55
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 1:30pm ET $299.34 45 $13,470.20 $13,572.82 $-29.35
(-0.2%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 11:00am ET $300.85 45 $13,538.25
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:30am ET $304.27 45 $13,691.93 $13,726.49 +$153.67
(+1.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:55am ET $304.02 45 $13,680.90
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 2:50pm ET $311.86 45 $14,033.92 $14,079.51 +$353.02
(+2.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 2:10pm ET $307.44 45 $13,834.58
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 12:00pm ET $303.95 45 $13,677.75 $13,922.68 $-156.83
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 1:35pm ET $306.59 45 $13,796.33
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $295.18 45 $13,283.10 $13,409.46 $-513.22
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 3:05pm ET $297.46 45 $13,385.70
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 3:20pm ET $294.32 45 $13,244.40 $13,268.16 $-141.30
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 10:20am ET $313.06 42 $13,148.52
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $296.99 42 $12,473.58 $12,593.22 $-674.94
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $291.06 43 $12,515.58
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $297.08 43 $12,774.44 $12,852.08 +$258.86
(+2.1%)
END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $297.63 43 $12,798.09
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $294.44 43 $12,660.92 $12,714.91 $-137.17
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:20pm ET $297.34 42 $12,488.28
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:45am ET $293.64 42 $12,332.88 $12,559.51 $-155.40
(-1.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 12:05pm ET $263.13 47 $12,366.88
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $262.02 47 $12,314.71 $12,507.34 $-52.17
(-0.4%)
📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,507.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,507.34
Total Return: +25.07%
Back to Surge