Compendium › Surge › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 8 trades in period

-1.29%
Year to Date Return
$10,041.76
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,173.27
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:31:45

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

7
Lifetime
Confidence: 73%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.1/35
Total Return
1.3/25
Win Rate
3.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 9.5/100
× Confidence 0.73 = 7.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (73%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,224
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
88 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,173.27
Current Value
$10,041.76
Period P&L
$-131.51
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.23

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+0.87%
Worst Trade
-1.11%
Avg Trade Return
-0.16%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$160,158.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-131.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$-131.51
Gross Return
-1.29%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 88 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,173.27 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 11:00am ET $302.12 33 $9,969.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:30am ET $304.30 33 $10,041.74 $10,245.05 +$71.78
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 10:45am ET $307.67 33 $10,153.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:15am ET $305.60 33 $10,084.64 $10,176.58 $-68.47
(-0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 3:05pm ET $307.77 33 $10,156.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $307.00 33 $10,131.00 $10,151.17 $-25.41
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 12:00pm ET $308.19 32 $9,862.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $310.88 32 $9,948.16 $10,237.13 +$85.96
(+0.9%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:55am ET $316.59 32 $10,130.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:00am ET $313.08 32 $10,018.56 $10,124.97 $-112.16
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET $322.54 31 $9,998.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:45am ET $322.83 31 $10,007.88 $10,134.11 +$9.14
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET $324.25 31 $10,051.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:30am ET $324.75 31 $10,067.25 $10,149.61 +$15.50
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:50pm ET $327.41 30 $9,822.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $323.82 30 $9,714.45 $10,041.76 $-107.85
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,041.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$41.76
Total Return: +0.42%
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