Compendium › Surge › MS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MS
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 12 trades in period

-2.38%
Year to Date Return
$16,551.06
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$16,955.13
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:15:58

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.1/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
4.8/15
Profit Factor
4.0/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 45.4/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 33.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,201
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
89 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,955.13
Current Value
$16,551.06
Period P&L
$-404.07
Max Drawdown
-16.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
4 / 8
Best Trade
+4.70%
Worst Trade
-2.32%
Avg Trade Return
-0.18%
Avg Hold Time
21.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$405,570.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-404.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$-404.07
Gross Return
-2.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 89 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $16,955.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:45am ET $179.18 94 $16,842.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $187.61 94 $17,635.34 $17,747.55 +$792.42
(+4.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:20am ET $187.72 94 $17,645.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 10:50am ET $187.37 94 $17,612.78 $17,714.65 $-32.90
(-0.2%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $188.63 93 $17,542.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET $185.52 93 $17,253.36 $17,425.42 $-289.23
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 3:50pm ET $187.12 93 $17,402.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $182.77 93 $16,997.61 $17,020.87 $-404.55
(-2.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:15am ET $189.68 89 $16,881.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 10:45am ET $191.77 89 $17,067.53 $17,206.88 +$186.01
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $185.07 92 $17,026.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:00am ET $183.11 92 $16,845.66 $17,026.10 $-180.78
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $185.97 91 $16,923.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 1:55pm ET $184.02 91 $16,745.82 $16,848.65 $-177.45
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 10:15am ET $182.22 92 $16,764.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 10:45am ET $182.44 92 $16,784.48 $16,868.89 +$20.24
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:05am ET $182.68 92 $16,806.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:25am ET $180.53 92 $16,608.76 $16,671.09 $-197.80
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 11:05am ET $184.02 90 $16,561.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:35am ET $182.19 90 $16,397.10 $16,506.39 $-164.70
(-1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 10:35am ET $182.63 90 $16,436.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:00am ET $180.22 90 $16,219.80 $16,289.94 $-216.45
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 10:25am ET $168.27 96 $16,153.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $170.99 96 $16,415.04 $16,551.06 +$261.12
(+1.6%) 		📅 Sim Ended
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,551.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,551.06
Total Return: +65.51%
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