Compendium › Surge › PEP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
PEP
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 13 trades in period

+7.23%
Year to Date Return
$10,985.71
Current Value
62%
Win Rate
$10,244.71
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:17:38

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
85.2 overbought
20d Trend
+19.9%
5d Trend
+9.7%
EMA20 Dist
+9.3%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
62.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 75%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.9/35
Total Return
8.6/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 21.1/100
× Confidence 0.75 = 15.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (75%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,466
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
88 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,244.71
Current Value
$10,985.71
Period P&L
$741.00
Max Drawdown
-11.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.37

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
13
Winners / Losers
8 / 5
Best Trade
+3.35%
Worst Trade
-1.12%
Avg Trade Return
+0.55%
Avg Hold Time
22.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$274,696.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$741.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$741.00
Gross Return
+7.23%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.23%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PEP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 88 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 13 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $10,244.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 2:00pm ET $139.26 73 $10,165.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 2:30pm ET $140.01 73 $10,220.73 $10,299.58 +$54.87
(+0.5%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 11:30am ET $140.85 73 $10,282.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:00pm ET $141.87 73 $10,356.15 $10,373.68 +$74.10
(+0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 1:35pm ET $142.80 72 $10,281.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 2:05pm ET $145.84 72 $10,500.48 $10,592.56 +$218.88
(+2.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:20pm ET $146.87 72 $10,574.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 2:50pm ET $145.88 72 $10,503.36 $10,521.64 $-70.92
(-0.7%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 3:25pm ET $147.26 71 $10,455.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:00am ET $145.66 71 $10,341.86 $10,408.39 $-113.25
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 2:05pm ET $145.56 71 $10,334.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 2:35pm ET $148.24 71 $10,525.04 $10,598.67 +$190.28
(+1.8%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 2:40pm ET $148.18 71 $10,520.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 3:10pm ET $148.25 71 $10,525.75 $10,603.64 +$4.97
(+0.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 11:00am ET $150.61 70 $10,542.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 3:45pm ET $149.07 70 $10,434.55 $10,495.49 $-108.15
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:25am ET $149.99 69 $10,349.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:05am ET $153.92 69 $10,620.48 $10,766.66 +$271.17
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 11:45am ET $155.44 69 $10,725.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:00am ET $160.64 69 $11,084.16 $11,125.46 +$358.80
(+3.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET $162.39 68 $11,042.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:40am ET $160.57 68 $10,918.42 $11,001.36 $-124.10
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:30am ET $167.88 65 $10,911.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 11:25am ET $166.00 65 $10,790.00 $10,879.48 $-121.88
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET $168.62 64 $10,791.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $170.28 64 $10,897.91 $10,985.71 +$106.23
(+1.0%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,985.71
Net Profit/Loss: +$985.71
Total Return: +9.86%
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