Compendium › Surge › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 16 trades in period

-3.01%
Year to Date Return
$7,534.57
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$7,768.71
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:19:02

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 3.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,866
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$7,768.71
Current Value
$7,534.57
Period P&L
$-234.14
Max Drawdown
-43.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
4 / 12
Best Trade
+15.17%
Worst Trade
-5.27%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
22.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$246,012.32
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-234.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$-234.14
Gross Return
-3.01%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.01%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $7,768.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 11:35am ET $19.80 394 $7,801.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:05am ET $20.32 394 $8,006.08 $8,020.87 +$204.88
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 10:00am ET $19.84 404 $8,015.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:00pm ET $19.64 404 $7,932.54 $7,938.01 $-82.86
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 10:35am ET $19.60 405 $7,935.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 12:25pm ET $20.14 405 $8,154.68 $8,156.71 +$218.70
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 11:30am ET $20.84 391 $8,148.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 11:35am ET $20.61 391 $8,058.51 $8,066.78 $-89.93
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 11:35am ET $19.33 417 $8,060.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET $19.12 417 $7,974.75 $7,980.96 $-85.82
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 10:40am ET $16.51 483 $7,971.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET $16.32 483 $7,880.15 $7,889.19 $-91.77
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 1:10pm ET $15.48 509 $7,876.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET $15.30 509 $7,787.70 $7,800.12 $-89.07
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:05am ET $14.58 535 $7,798.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET $14.41 535 $7,712.02 $7,713.45 $-86.67
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 10:15am ET $14.20 543 $7,710.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:05pm ET $14.56 543 $7,908.79 $7,911.64 +$198.19
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 11:45am ET $14.86 532 $7,908.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $14.70 532 $7,823.06 $7,826.52 $-85.12
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET $15.28 512 $7,825.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 1:45pm ET $15.13 512 $7,744.00 $7,744.60 $-81.92
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 13, 2026 1:45pm ET $18.08 428 $7,739.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $17.89 428 $7,654.78 $7,659.64 $-84.96
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $16.75 457 $7,653.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 12:05pm ET $15.91 457 $7,269.82 $7,275.62 $-384.02
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $16.77 433 $7,261.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 11:35am ET $15.91 433 $6,891.19 $6,905.45 $-370.17
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.57 443 $6,897.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:35am ET $14.75 443 $6,534.25 $6,542.19 $-363.26
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $15.39 425 $6,540.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:55am ET $17.73 425 $7,533.13 $7,534.57 +$992.38
(+15.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,534.57
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,465.43
Total Return: -24.65%
Back to Surge