Compendium › Surge › SQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 18 trades in period

+12.69%
Year to Date Return
$10,484.66
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,304.15
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:00:09

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
67.3 neutral
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+22.2%
EMA20 Dist
+12.2%
ATR%
4.2%
Range Pos
70%
Bounce Ratio
3.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.4/35
Total Return
6.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 12.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 11.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,485
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,304.15
Current Value
$10,484.66
Period P&L
$1,180.51
Max Drawdown
-38.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
8 / 10
Best Trade
+15.09%
Worst Trade
-5.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.81%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$354,236.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,180.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,180.51
Gross Return
+12.69%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.69%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $9,304.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 2:30pm ET $67.86 136 $9,229.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:00am ET $66.24 136 $9,008.64 $9,010.39 $-220.97
(-2.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET $67.33 133 $8,954.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET $69.14 133 $9,195.55 $9,251.05 +$240.66
(+2.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:15am ET $65.03 142 $9,234.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:40am ET $64.36 142 $9,139.12 $9,155.91 $-95.14
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:45am ET $68.03 134 $9,116.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET $67.33 134 $9,021.55 $9,061.44 $-94.47
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:25pm ET $65.63 138 $9,056.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $66.35 138 $9,155.61 $9,160.80 +$99.36
(+1.1%) 		END_OF_DAY
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 3:30pm ET $66.45 137 $9,102.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 10:00am ET $69.53 137 $9,525.61 $9,583.45 +$422.65
(+4.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:45pm ET $70.27 136 $9,556.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 10:00am ET $69.28 136 $9,422.08 $9,448.80 $-134.65
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:40am ET $62.55 151 $9,444.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $65.33 151 $9,864.08 $9,868.58 +$419.78
(+4.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET $65.42 150 $9,813.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET $67.14 150 $10,071.00 $10,126.58 +$258.00
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET $65.62 154 $10,105.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:10am ET $64.73 154 $9,968.88 $9,989.98 $-136.60
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET $67.13 148 $9,935.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:30pm ET $68.98 148 $10,209.04 $10,263.78 +$273.80
(+2.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $70.33 145 $10,197.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $69.58 145 $10,089.59 $10,155.52 $-108.26
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $75.32 134 $10,092.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET $74.39 134 $9,968.30 $10,031.34 $-124.18
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $69.29 144 $9,978.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 2:10pm ET $68.57 144 $9,874.07 $9,926.93 $-104.41
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $70.07 141 $9,879.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 11:15am ET $71.89 141 $10,137.19 $10,184.25 +$257.32
(+2.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $77.46 131 $10,147.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 2:30pm ET $89.15 131 $11,678.64 $11,715.63 +$1,531.38
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11.2d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $81.43 143 $11,644.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET $76.72 143 $10,970.96 $11,042.10 $-673.53
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $54.20 203 $11,002.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:45pm ET $51.45 203 $10,445.16 $10,484.66 $-557.44
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,484.66
Net Profit/Loss: +$484.66
Total Return: +4.85%
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