Compendium › Surge › UVXY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
UVXY
Alpaca Tradeable

Surge's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 22 trades in period

-14.85%
Year to Date Return
$12,727.07
Current Value
23%
Win Rate
$14,945.90
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:18:10

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
61.7 neutral
20d Trend
+17.9%
5d Trend
+12.1%
EMA20 Dist
+11.8%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
24%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.7/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 22.5/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 20.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,850
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$14,945.90
Current Value
$12,727.07
Period P&L
$-2,218.83
Max Drawdown
-20.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
5 / 17
Best Trade
+16.96%
Worst Trade
-5.85%
Avg Trade Return
-0.63%
Avg Hold Time
19.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$622,334.11
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,218.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,218.83
Gross Return
-14.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 UVXY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Surge had $14,945.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET $35.55 420 $14,928.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:30am ET $35.10 420 $14,743.13 $14,760.13 $-185.77
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 11:15am ET $35.25 418 $14,736.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET $34.90 418 $14,588.20 $14,611.99 $-148.14
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET $34.91 418 $14,592.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 11:50am ET $34.49 418 $14,416.82 $14,436.43 $-175.56
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:45am ET $38.37 376 $14,427.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 11:15am ET $37.98 376 $14,280.48 $14,289.79 $-146.64
(-1.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $35.50 402 $14,271.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 11:35am ET $35.10 402 $14,108.19 $14,126.98 $-162.81
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $40.89 345 $14,107.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $41.92 345 $14,462.40 $14,482.33 +$355.35
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET $35.41 409 $14,480.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET $34.87 409 $14,261.83 $14,263.51 $-218.82
(-1.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $35.60 400 $14,238.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 10:40am ET $36.63 400 $14,650.00 $14,675.51 +$412.00
(+2.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 10:55am ET $36.75 399 $14,663.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 12:50pm ET $36.35 399 $14,503.65 $14,515.91 $-159.60
(-1.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $39.40 368 $14,499.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:15am ET $38.90 368 $14,315.20 $14,331.54 $-184.37
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:00pm ET $37.63 380 $14,299.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 12:20pm ET $37.03 380 $14,071.40 $14,103.54 $-228.00
(-1.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:00am ET $37.70 374 $14,099.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $37.17 374 $13,901.58 $13,905.32 $-198.22
(-1.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $41.46 335 $13,889.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:15am ET $40.96 335 $13,721.60 $13,737.82 $-167.50
(-1.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:50pm ET $36.18 379 $13,712.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $37.37 379 $14,163.23 $14,188.83 +$451.01
(+3.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:25am ET $37.51 378 $14,179.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:30am ET $37.02 378 $13,993.56 $14,003.08 $-185.75
(-1.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 10:35am ET $36.47 383 $13,969.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 10:55am ET $37.40 383 $14,322.29 $14,356.24 +$353.16
(+2.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $50.20 285 $14,307.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $47.26 285 $13,470.52 $13,519.76 $-836.48
(-5.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $49.63 272 $13,499.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 10:05am ET $47.08 272 $12,807.12 $12,827.52 $-692.24
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $47.25 271 $12,805.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $55.26 271 $14,976.81 $14,999.23 +$2,171.71
(+17.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $52.24 287 $14,992.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:10am ET $49.49 287 $14,202.20 $14,208.54 $-790.69
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $56.76 250 $14,190.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $53.53 250 $13,381.25 $13,399.79 $-808.75
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $55.10 243 $13,388.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:35am ET $52.33 243 $12,716.19 $12,727.07 $-672.72
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,727.07
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,727.07
Total Return: +27.27%
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